US Market Close | Trump Says He Doesn't Want Ceasefire, Dow Down 443 Points, US Long-Term Bond Yields Hit Six-Month High, September Rate Hike Probability Reaches 40%

Iran conflict escalates; President Trump told reporters on Friday, “I don’t want a ceasefire.” Energy prices fluctuate, the Dow drops over 600 points at one point; US long-term bond yields hit a six-month high, and market expectations for a September rate hike rise to 40%.

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The Dow closed down 443 points at 45,577; the S&P fell 1.51%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.01%. Friday was quadruple witching day for US stocks. Tesla and Nvidia shares both fell 3.2%. The US accused server manufacturer Supermicro (SMCI) executives of smuggling Nvidia chips into China, causing its stock to plunge 33.3%.

According to US news site Axios, citing four sources, the Trump administration is considering occupying or blockading Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The island handles 90% of Iran’s oil exports. Taking control could expose US troops to more direct fire. Currently, three different Marine units are heading to the area, and the White House and Pentagon are considering deploying more troops soon.

If successful, this could ease oil prices; if not, it could escalate conflict. Markets are betting on this: Brent crude initially rose 2%, then fluctuated.

Such actions are only considered after further weakening Iran’s military presence around the Strait of Hormuz, a source familiar with White House thinking said: “We need about a month to further weaken Iran through strikes, take this island, and hold their critical points as leverage for negotiations,” they said.

Approval of the operation would require more troops. Three Marine units are en route, and officials are considering deploying additional forces soon.

However, inflation remains high. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.387%, a six-month high. The dollar index increased 0.33% to 99.56.

CME FedWatch expects the probability of a rate hike this year to rise from about 20% on Thursday (19th) to nearly 40%.

Federal Reserve officials continue to support easing. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she still supports three rate cuts by the end of the year to support employment but is watching Iran’s war impact. She believes it’s too early to judge the effects.

Another Fed official, Christopher Waller, said that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would imply greater inflationary pressures. While the situation’s future is uncertain, he does not think the rest of the year should be a time to stand still. If US employment weakens, he would advocate rate cuts later this year, emphasizing that there’s no need to raise rates now.

Gold prices fluctuated, with spot gold down 3.32% at $4,496.51, the largest weekly decline since 1983; Bitcoin fell 2.73% to $69,398.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are updating continuously. See next page for details.

Market overview:

【21:30】Trump may deploy troops and take control of Kharg Island in Iran. Dow down 100 points; Supermicro plunges 28%.

【20:00】Trump may deploy troops and take control of Kharg Island. Dow futures down 134 points.

【15:14】Dow futures down 12 points at 46,329; S&P futures down 8 points at 6,652; Nasdaq futures down 60 points or 0.2% at 24,519.

【15:04】NY oil down 1% at $94.6; Brent down 0.3% at $108.3. Gold futures up 1.6% at $4,681; spot gold up 0.7%.

【15:04】【SMCI】Supermicro night trading drops 20% after co-founder was indicted for allegedly smuggling AI chips into China.

[12:54]【Gold Price Analysis】 Gold once tried to reach $4,500, marking the weakest weekly performance in six years. Analysts say the safe-haven effect is not yet clear; short-term outlook remains weak.

【12:41】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI plans to integrate ChatGPT, Codex, and launch a super app to simplify user experience and compete with Anthropic.

【11:19】【AI + Nvidia】Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: AI leaders should be cautious to avoid causing public panic. “Warnings are good, but scare tactics are not.”

【10:19】【Gold Price Trend】Gold faces its largest weekly decline in six years. How much is the current per-ounce price?

【08:20】【Iran Crisis】Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: No more strikes on Iran’s oil and gas facilities.

【07:58】【Iran Crisis】Bencet: Removing Iran’s oil sanctions allows oil to flow outside China, affecting market prices (updating).

【07:29】【Pearl Harbor】Trump meets Sanae Takamatsu. Japanese reporter: Why was the war not announced beforehand? Trump: You didn’t tell me about Pearl Harbor either.

$1 and below for March 19 US stock market overview====

Thursday: Trump halts Israel’s attack on oil fields; crude oil futures mostly erase gains, gold continues to fall

After attacks on Middle East oil facilities, the US increased market oil supply by possibly releasing strategic reserves, considering lifting sanctions on Iran’s oil, and approving Russian crude purchases. Brent crude hit a high of $119.13, up 10.9%, then closed up 0.4% at $107.83. NY oil rose 5.4%, reaching $101.48, then fell back 0.2% to $96.14.

▲【US Stock Futures】Dow futures down 12 points; Nasdaq futures down 0.2%. Oil prices retreat; NY oil down 1% (updating).

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Trump wrote that “Israel will no longer attack this extremely important and valuable gas field,” and called on Iran to exercise restraint. Later, at the White House, Trump said he told them not to do so.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently said the US will not intervene in oil-related financial markets but may further release oil reserves to lower prices. She admitted the US might unilaterally release strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) to reduce oil prices.

She also dismissed rumors that the US Treasury would intervene in oil futures markets, emphasizing that it will not do so and will not interfere in financial markets.

Global interest rate pressures pushed gold down 3.5%, closing at $4,650.02; silver fell 3.4% to $72.8251.

US stocks declined; Dow down 203 points at 46,021; S&P down 0.3% at 6,606; Nasdaq down 0.3% at 22,090.

After meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takamatsu, President Trump is expected to announce a nuclear power project in the southern US on Thursday (19th), a new initiative driven by the investment fund established under the trade agreement. Sources say GE Vernova (GEV) and Hitachi will build BWRX-300 small modular reactors in Tennessee and Alabama, costing up to $40 billion.

Japanese investment benefits US AI industry; tech stocks narrowed losses or rose. Nvidia (US: NVDA) fell 1%; AMD (US: AMD) rose 2.9%. Alphabet (Google’s parent) fell 0.2%. Micron (US: MU) fell 3.8% after earnings; Tesla (US: TSLA) down 3.2%.

Earlier, Reuters reported that Saudi Defense said a ballistic missile was intercepted over Yanbu, causing a temporary halt in oil loading at Yanbu port, which then resumed. The Saudi Defense Ministry earlier said a drone crashed at the SAMREF refinery (a key Yanbu oil facility), and damage assessment is ongoing.

Iran previously said that after attacks on its natural gas fields, the Yanbu-based South Pars refinery was one of the energy facilities targeted.

Additionally, Qatar’s largest LNG export facility and the UAE’s gas fields have been attacked. Kuwait’s energy facilities were also hit, escalating Middle East tensions.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are updating continuously. See next page for details.

Market overview:

【23:05】US and Japan to jointly build a nuclear project in the southern US, with $40 billion investment. Micron’s decline narrows to 2%.

【21:30】US will not intervene in oil markets but may release reserves. May crude up 5%; gold plunges 6%; Dow down 302 points.

【20:55】Yellen: US will not intervene in oil markets but may unilaterally release strategic reserves.

【17:55】Iran bombs Saudi oil refinery; Brent crude surges 10% to $120; Dow futures down 42 points.

【14:11】Dow futures down 10 points at 46,525; S&P futures down 4 points at 6,672; Nasdaq futures down 43 points or 0.2% at 24,608.

[13:34][MU Analysis] Micron reports after-hours down over 4%. Analysts say: “This quarter’s earnings are equivalent to a full year’s profit,” and increased capital expenditure to build a moat is a double-edged sword.

[13:16][US Stock Analysis] Powell’s hawkish tone causes Dow to plunge over 700 points. Can oil prices be a bottom indicator?

【12:18】【Fed Meeting】A review of market commentary on the March Fed meeting. Aberdeen estimates only one rate cut in September.

【11:13】【Yen Trend】Bank of Japan maintains interest rates as expected; USD/JPY at 4.91.

【10:44】【Oil Price Trend】Brent surpasses $110; if escalation continues, $120 may be the new starting point.

【10:37】【US Market Focus】SEC approves Nasdaq’s trial of “security tokenization.”

【10:11】【AI + Chips】Elon Musk: He is a big fan of Nvidia and Huang Renxun. SpaceX AI and Tesla plan to order Nvidia chips on a large scale.

【08:47】【Gold Trend】Gold stabilizes around $4,800 after six days of decline, slightly rebounding.

【07:42】【AI + Micron】Micron’s earnings fall 4% after hours; capital spending expected to double in H2.

【07:01】【Iran Crisis】Oil facilities are targets of mutual attacks. Israel strikes Iran’s oil and gas fields; Iran retaliates against US oil facilities in the Middle East (updating).

【06:29】【Fed Meeting】Powell: Will remain chairman until a successor is appointed; uncertain about Iran war impact. Dot plot predicts one rate cut in 2026 and 2027.

$1 and below for March 16 US stock market overview====

Wednesday: Dow drops 768 points to a low of the year; Powell: Rising energy prices boost inflation expectations

Fed keeps rates steady, expects one rate cut this year and next. Middle East conflict has pushed oil prices up nearly 50% this month. Powell emphasized that if inflation shows no signs of progress, no rate cuts will be considered. He warned that rising energy prices could raise overall inflation expectations. After his comments, the Dow fell 800 points.

The Dow closed down 768 points at 46,225; the S&P fell 1.36% to 6,699; the Nasdaq declined 1.46%.

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Due to G7 countries releasing strategic oil reserves, short-term supply is ample, but Iran’s ongoing crisis continues to trouble markets. Trump announced he postponed a summit with Xi Jinping by about a month, citing the importance of directing the Iran war from Washington. The delay reflects Trump’s expectations about the duration of the Iran conflict.

The Dow rose 387 points, closing at 46,946; the S&P up 1% at 6,699; the Nasdaq up 1.2% at 22,374.

Foreign media PBS reports Trump said Iran is not yet ready for a deal, and predicted that once the war ends, oil prices will drop rapidly like a rolling stone, believing the war won’t last long. He also said Iran has extensive infrastructure in Tehran that could be destroyed in an hour, but doing so would require years of rebuilding and cause trauma, so he prefers to avoid it. He also mentioned he does not want to damage the pipelines on the gas-rich Kharg Island, as destruction would take years to reconnect.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US does not mind some Iranian, Indian, and Chinese ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, considering Iran’s release of ships a natural opening, and hopes global oil supply remains sufficient. She added that any measures to ease oil prices depend on how long the Iran war continues.

Key stocks: Nvidia (US: NVDA) rose 2.6%, closing at $184.93, after Huang’s speech at GTC. Data center company Nebius (US: NBIS) surged 15.4%, announcing it will provide $12 billion of dedicated computing capacity for Meta (US: META) starting early 2027, with Meta committing to buy up to $15 billion more. Meta rose 1.9%.

This week’s focus: US February PPI data will be released Tuesday; Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Thursday. Major central banks like ECB, BoE, and BOJ will also hold meetings. Micron (US: MU) reports earnings after market close Wednesday.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are updating continuously. See next page for details.

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Market overview:

【22:55】Trump: Once the war ends, oil prices will fall sharply. Dow up 393 points; oil down 1%.

【21:30】Yellen: US does not oppose Chinese ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Dow up 369 points; oil down 1%.

【18:50】Middle East war enters third week. Dow futures up 152; Nasdaq futures up 0.7%. This week is a “super rate decision week.”

【13:47】Dow futures up 226 at 47,112; S&P futures up 39 at 6,724; Nasdaq futures up 147 or 0.6% at 24,753.

【12:59】【AI + Chips】Tesla to build AI chips? Elon Musk announces launch of giant AI chip factory “Terafab.”

【12:06】【AI + Gemini】Gemini used in Hong Kong! Google plans to expand Gemini to all Hong Kong users, starting with web version, mobile app later.

【11:07】【Xi-Trump Meeting】Trump says “possible delay” of about a month for meeting with Xi Jinping.

【10:14】【Iran Crisis】IEA: Over 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves are about to be released, prioritizing Asia; Europe and US wait until late March.

【19:28】【Gold Trend】Gold drops below $5,000 amid third week of Middle East war, oil prices continue rising.

【11:36】【Iran Crisis】US Energy Secretary: Cannot guarantee oil prices will fall in a few weeks. Will target military facilities first, then seize the strait (updating).

【07:30】【Global Outlook】This week is a “super rate decision week.” The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged on Thursday.

【07:30】Middle East tensions intensify. US stocks declined last Friday; Dow briefly rose 446 points, then fell 183, closing at 46,558, down 119; S&P down 0.61%; Nasdaq down 0.93%.

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