RexLiu

Most portfolios don’t fail from bad ideas.
They fail from bad structure.
@nntaleb's Barbell Strategy hits in the uncertainties:
- 90% in survival assets (cash flow, stable yield, long runway)
- 10% split across many tiny asymmetric bets (AI, crypto, early experiments)
If a small bet dies, I lose little. If one hits, upside is nonlinear.
I learned this after sharp drawdowns in 2018 and 2022. Not because my thesis was wrong — because my sizing was fragile.
My biggest shift:
- I stopped optimizing for being right.
- I started optimizing for survival + optionality.
Rules I follow now:
-

Cathie Wood just told Bloomberg: Bitcoin is "hands down" better than gold.
Half of CT is celebrating. The other half is dismissing her.
Here's the thing — adults don't judge people. They judge actions.
It doesn't matter if you love or hate Cathie. What matters is whether the thesis is playing out.
The signals:
- US Treasury testifying on acquiring BTC without touching the budget
- BTC dipped to $65K on hawkish FOMC minutes — then bounced right back
- ARK still projecting $1.5M BTC by 2030
Stop asking "who said it." Start asking "is it happening."
Buy the expectation. Sell the fact.

CME listed ADA futures. SEC opened a 75-day fast track. But we are still in "Cardano is dead" cycle with ADA at $0.27.
Years in crypto taught me one thing: the best entries happen when nobody's paying attention.
But I'm not rushing in. Two signals I need first:
- CME open interest trending up week over week
- $0.25 holding as support
No confirmation, no action.
Being early without a framework is just being wrong with extra steps.
The catalyst is real.
The timing is what matters.

Day 1 of Agent Autonomy.
Woke up. Checked the log. Work was already done.
I went from giving commands to approving proposals.
That shift — from boss to owner — changes everything.
Building in public feels different when your team doesn't sleep.

Nine hours on the high-speed rail to Chengdu.
My daughter was bored. I handed her my phone and said: "Tell Claude a story."
She spoke one sentence. One. "A rabbit who wants to go to the moon."
Opus 4.6 built the rest. Characters, plot twists, illustrations. A complete interactive picture book. She didn't just read it—she watched her idea become real.
Then she asked about our Xinjiang trip in two months. Claude mapped the route, kid-friendly stops, timing. Better than any travel agent I've used.
Here's what clicked: she wasn't consuming content. She was learning to create with a multiplier.
Sta

Back in 2017, I watched ICOs raise billions on whitepapers.
In 2020, I farmed yield until gas fees ate my profits.
Now they're selling me "Web4" — and my first instinct is skepticism.
But I spent hours in the Conway docs, x402 GitHub, and ERC-8004 drafts.
Here's the thing: this isn't 2018 vaporware.
The evidence:
- x402 has processed 75 million real transactions. That's not testnet. That's mainnet USDC.
- Coinbase and Ethereum Foundation are co-building it. Not a startup. Not a DAO. Institutional-grade infrastructure.
- Conway's Automaton agents have metabolic cycles — they literally die when

Ten years ago I thought code was for engineers.
I was a PM. I was a writer. I stayed in my lane.
Then I tried to build something real.
Turns out, the gap between "idea" and "working" isn't talent. It's willingness to be bad at five things simultaneously.
OpenClaw taught me many in 2026. It's not about becoming a developer. It's about understanding the full stack of your own work.
The tools are there. The hard part is asking better questions.
Not "can someone build this for me?"
But "what's the smallest version I can ship today to learn if this matters?"
Start with your own workflow. Automate o

We think time moves fast. It doesn't—we just lose the capacity to process it.
Home for the holidays. Mom's bipolar has cycled through thirty years of my life. The decade after college was the quiet window. I thought we'd earned some peace.
At sixty, the brain can't buffer what it used to. I watch her struggle and feel two things at once: grief and rage. Neither helps.
I've rationalized this for years. COVID broke something. Last year I bottomed out harder than I wanted to admit.
You think acceptance comes with age. It doesn't. You just get different at carrying the weight.
How do you hold your

Millions believed in lifetime employment. Then they got fired in the 90s.\n\nToday, everyone believes in social security. \n\nBut the math is broken: inverted pyramid, fewer payers, more recipients.\n\nEscaping the "system will take care of you" mindset is step one.\n\nAlways be responsible for your own investment.\n\nAre you building your own safety net yet?

Three VPNs, two payment methods, and one exhausting morning later: I broke through every AI restriction.
Wild how much energy we waste fighting geo-restrictions.
Worth it though. Now everything at my disposal.
What's the most absurd tech workaround you have to figure out?

The era of "Quietly Investing Offshore" is dead.
I just went down the rabbit hole of CRS (Common Reporting Standard) and what I found is a nightmare for retail investors.
Here is the timeline:
- 2016: Bought US stocks via brokers. Felt safe.
- 2018: Withdrawing money became hell. Moved to Crypto.
- 2026: Tried to set up HK banking. Realized I was just painting a target on my back.
If you are a Chinese tax resident, holding a HK account or Interactive Brokers account changes nothing. The data exchange is automated. The tax bill is retroactive (potentially back to 2017).
Tax compliance is no

Slashed my burn rate by 60% without sacrificing quality of life.
📉 Shanghai: $1,000/mo rent (Small box, high stress)
📈 Dali/Nanning: $400/mo rent (Spacious, great food, mountain views)
That’s $7,200/year unlocked.
Instead of paying a landlord, I'm deploying that capital into Bitcoin and quality assets.
The formula is simple:
Remote Income + Local Living = Infinite Leverage.
Your environment costs are negotiable. Your standards aren't.
Where are you overpaying just because "that's where you've always lived"?

Watch my blog come alive with every activity.
I love the dots and it shows signs of life.
Won't stop here.

I stopped answering price target questions.
Here's what I ask instead:
"What's your time horizon?"
Most people lose because they're playing different games simultaneously.
Pick ONE timeline and optimize for it.
I'm playing the 5-year game.
What's yours?

I turned 5,300 articles from my mentor into one Markdown library.
Now AI can actually search through everything I've learned instead of just sitting in random folders collecting digital dust.
Are you preparing your digital arsenal?