O mercado começa a revalorizar as expectativas de subida de juros, preocupações com a inflação e a geopolítica estão a remodelar o percurso do Federal Reserve

金色财经报道，3月29日，“用‘180度转变’来形容近期市场对央行货币政策预期的变化，都显得不够。”
Just a few weeks ago, the market expected the Federal Reserve to make multiple rate cuts in 2026, but it has now clearly begun to price in possible rate hikes this year.
CME FedWatch Tool的最新数据显示，今年年底联邦基金利率高于当前3.50%-3.75%区间的概率接近30%，而利率下降的概率则已降至2.9%。
This shift in expectations has been driven mainly by inflation concerns triggered by the energy market.
Since the escalation of the Middle East situation at the end of February, Brent crude oil prices have risen from around $70 per barrel to about $111 currently.
At the same time, long-term yields on U.S. Treasuries have also risen sharply, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing from below 4% a few weeks ago to about 4.40%.
《Crypto is Macro Now》通讯指出：“食品和能源价格不幸将持续上涨，并在一段时间内维持高位，至少要等中东航运混乱问题得到解决。
Even if a peace agreement were reached tomorrow (which is unlikely), it would take at least several months to alleviate.”