#美国宏观经济数据 When I saw this data, the first thought that flashed through my mind was — we're back at that crossroads again.

A situation that occurs only three times in 65 years, the last time was the 2000 internet bubble, and before that was the night before the 2006 real estate crisis. Each time American households were reconfiguring their assets, and each time behind it lay the most critical inflection point of the economic cycle.

After 2008, the stock allocation more than doubled, rising from 25% to the current 31% — this number doesn't seem exaggerated, but what does it represent? How much wealth flowed from physical assets to the capital market over the past 16 years. Real estate allocation fell below 30%, which was still at 34% in 2021. In just a few years, American household asset allocation completed a major shift.

I've seen too many people make wrong judgments at such moments. In 2000, some said the internet was the future and you should go all in; in 2006, some said houses would never depreciate and you should leverage up. Now, some are saying the stock market has already peaked.

But there's a detail worth pondering — corporate stocks and mutual funds have reached historic highs, suggesting that the foundation of this round of gains is much broader than during the internet bubble period. Back then it was the frenzy of tech stocks, now it's the expansion of the entire listed company system. What can this explain? It might mean the pricing mechanism is more rational, or it might mean the risks are buried deeper.

History never repeats, but it always rhymes. The key is to see clearly where the rhyme scheme falls this time.