US stocks plunged at the start of the year, and the logic behind this decline is actually quite straightforward.

The S&P 500 has been pulling back from its year-end highs, with the main reason pointing to one figure: the unemployment rate. Latest data shows the November unemployment rate has surged to 4.6%, the highest in over four years. Consider that it was just 3.5% at the beginning of the year—a jump of 1.1 percentage points in just ten months is indeed not slow.

Why is this happening? First, tariff policies have pushed up corporate costs, and employers' appetite for hiring has clearly declined. Second, while the AI boom has boosted tech stocks, other industries are struggling, and job growth has noticeably slowed. Just look at the job openings data—in November there were only 0.91 job openings for every unemployed person, the lowest level in 14 months.

What does the market fear most? Recession signals. Rising unemployment is typically a leading indicator of economic recession, and history shows this pattern. High-valuation US stocks are particularly sensitive to negative data like this; any small disruption triggers a correction. Although the Fed cut rates at the end of last year, the room for further easing in 2026 is actually limited, and investors are starting to worry whether stagflation risks might actually return.

For the crypto market and Bitcoin price, these macro signals are equally important. Risk assets in traditional finance are decelerating, the liquidity environment is shifting, and this will inevitably affect crypto asset performance. Market volatility may intensify in the short term, but the key is whether the labor market can stabilize—if January's employment report shows a rebound, expectations could shift; conversely, if the unemployment rate continues to hit new highs, the correction could be deeper.

In summary, this is a time to be vigilant about macro signals and appropriately allocate defensive assets. While the crypto market has its own logic, its connection to the global liquidity environment has never been severed.