#我的2026第一条帖 Non-farm payroll night crash? Crypto surges or flashes lower amid rate cut frenzy?

The cryptocurrency market has recently experienced increased volatility influenced by macroeconomic policy expectations, with U.S. rate cut expectations and the upcoming non-farm payroll data becoming core variables driving market direction. After cryptocurrency prices experienced a weak pullback, they achieved rapid rebound following joint rate cut calls from fiscal and Federal Reserve officials. Tonight's non-farm report will further clarify market expectations, with particular attention needed to volatility risks following data release. Below is detailed market analysis.

I. Macroeconomic News: Rate Cut Expectations Heat Up, Crypto Prices Rebound

Last night, the U.S. released worse-than-expected jobless claims data for the week, causing the cryptocurrency market to continue its weak downtrend. Bitcoin fell to a low of 89200, while Ethereum briefly dipped to around 3050, giving back all gains from the beginning of the week. However, late evening brought a market turnaround when U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly stated he strongly hopes the government will lower interest rates and urged the Federal Reserve to cut further. Simultaneously, Federal Reserve executive Miran again called for rate cuts of 1.5 percentage points (150 basis points) in 2026 to stimulate the job market. These officials' statements significantly strengthened market expectations for rate cuts, directly driving Bitcoin's rapid rebound to reclaim the 90000 level, even surging above 91000 in the early morning hours, with Ethereum following suit and rising back above 3100.

II. Technical Analysis: Multi-timeframe Signals Diverge, Rebound Momentum Uneven

For Bitcoin, price found support and rebounded at the midpoint support line on the daily chart, but the RSI indicator measuring price momentum shows a bearish crossover, with the short-term downtrend still dominant. However, on the 4-hour chart, the RSI has dropped to the oversold zone and begun turning upward, while MACD shows weakening downward momentum; on the hourly chart, rebound strength has somewhat diminished. Ethereum's trend is similar to Bitcoin, experiencing weak decline yesterday, then rapidly rebounding from around 3050 back to 3100, but failed to continue rising in the early morning, topping out around 3140. Technically, the midpoint support of 3050 on the daily chart remains valid, but both RSI and MACD indicate stronger bearish strength. The 4-hour chart shows mild correction recovery signs, but the hourly chart appears weak.

III. Short-term Trend Assessment: Focus on Rebound Strength, Focus on Non-farm Data

From a short-term perspective, the market has correction recovery needs, but overall remains weak with attention needed to pullback magnitude. For Bitcoin, near-term resistance can focus on the 92000 and 93000 midpoints on the 4-hour chart, while support below remains at the 90000 level and 89000 zone. For Ethereum, near-term focus on support at 3050, with 3000 also being important support; near-term resistance above at 3160 above on the hourly chart and 3200 at the 4-hour midpoint. If buying pressure proves strong enough, it could test the 3230 to 3250 zone. Today, observe rebound conditions during trading, with the most critical factor being tonight's U.S. non-farm payroll data—this data directly reflects U.S. employment market conditions, and its results will directly alter market expectations and subsequently trigger cryptocurrency market volatility. Close attention is warranted.