Circle Position Liquidation Record and Cause Analysis

Trading Operation:
Liquidated Circle positions in two tranches at 83 and 112.
Personal reasons for liquidation (all subjective views):
1. Disconnect between narrative and reality:
Circle's recent rally was driven by the AI Agent payment narrative, but AI Agent payment is still in a very early stage. The issuance volume of stablecoin USDC being truly driven by AI Agent trading volume would take 2-3 years at minimum. Current trading is just reflecting optimistic expectations about AI.
2. Market positioning limitations:
Stablecoin payments for AI Agents are only a niche market segment. Stablecoin payments will mainly be used in cross-border scenarios, while for AI Agents, local payment scenarios represent the largest opportunity. The most rational approach for local payments is combining fiat currency with local applications. Cross-border Agent payment scenarios are not the primary problem being solved currently.
3. Valuation too high:
Circle's current market cap of $28 billion is too expensive compared to net profits of over $100 million annually. I believe the current price already reflects the valuation when USDC issuance volume grows 10x.