A new account invested $20,000, betting that the U.S. military will not enter Iran before the end of March.

According to CoinWorld, based on monitoring by PolyBeats, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account invested $20,000 to buy the “No” option on the prediction that the U.S. military will not enter Iran before March 31. The opening average price for this bet was 75¢, and the current probability of this event is 75%.

Trump has repeatedly emphasized that the war will end soon and described the current joint airstrikes as a “major military breakthrough” and a “strategic victory,” attempting to cool the situation to prevent a prolonged ground war in the Middle East, which could trigger further spikes in international oil prices and increase domestic inflation in the U.S.

On the other hand, he has also issued threats of escalation, such as retaliating “20 times harder” if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this, the Trump administration is trying to characterize the previous joint airstrikes as a “tactical success” and seeks to gradually withdraw, but has not shown firm resistance to deploying U.S. troops into Iranian territory, instead considering limited special forces operations to address remaining threats.

However, Washington faces immense pressure from Israel. After the earlier airstrikes severely damaged senior Iranian officials, hardliners in Israel believe this is the only historical window to completely eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat. Since high-level underground nuclear facilities cannot be fully incapacitated with existing bunker-busting munitions, Israel is continuously lobbying and even pressuring the White House, hoping U.S. special forces can carry out short-term ground infiltration or physical destruction missions to thoroughly eliminate remaining enriched uranium stocks and nuclear materials.

Account: 0x94a88422bca9af3db3045ddbe5f8f6d3be185204
Total Open Position: $20K

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