The CLARITY Act has an "extremely low" chance of being passed if it is not passed before April

The US CLARITY Act, designed to bring more transparency to the regulation of the cryptocurrency industry, may face the risk of not passing this year if progress is not made within the next seven weeks, according to an industry leader.

“If the CLARITY Act is not approved by the Committee before the end of April, the chances of it being enacted in 2026 will be extremely low,” said Alex Thorn, Global Research Director at Galaxy Digital, in a post on X platform on Saturday.

“This bill needs to be brought to the Senate floor for discussion before early May… time is running out, and the opportunity for passage diminishes each day,” Thorn emphasized. This statement came after Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he does not expect the Senate to consider digital asset market structure bills before April, as Congress will prioritize discussions on the SAVE America Act. This law requires voters to present proof of U.S. citizenship directly when registering to vote.

Disputes over stablecoin rewards: Not the final hurdle yet?

According to Thorn, one of the biggest obstacles to the CLARITY Act currently is the debate over whether stablecoin rewards could disrupt the traditional banking system. This issue has caused deep divisions between the banking sector and the cryptocurrency industry. However, he also warned that even if this issue is resolved, many other challenges remain.

“It’s very likely that stablecoin rewards are not the ‘final barrier’ but only a temporary obstacle causing the bill to stall,” he said, emphasizing that other issues such as decentralized finance (DeFi), protecting developers’ rights, and regulatory authority could continue to be significant hurdles.

Senator Angela Alsobrooks, a key member of the Senate Banking Committee and a Democrat, recently also stated that both the banking industry and the crypto industry need to be prepared to make compromises. “All of us might have to walk away from negotiations a little dissatisfied,” she said Tuesday.

CLARITY Act could be delayed until 2029, according to an investment bank forecast

Although some lawmakers were optimistic about passing the bill in April, recent predictions are less encouraging. Senator Bernie Moreno, a crypto supporter, said on February 19 that he hopes the CLARITY Act will be passed by Congress “before April.”

However, investment bank TD Cowen warned in January that cryptocurrency market structure bills might not be passed before 2027 and could only come into effect in 2029. This could happen if Democratic lawmakers succeed in delaying a vote until after the midterm elections and regain control of at least one chamber of Congress.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump recently criticized banks for blocking the passage of the crypto market structure bill in the Senate, especially due to disagreements over stablecoin yields. “The US needs to finalize the Market Structure soon. This is urgent,” President Trump stated on March 4.