Gate News Report, March 18 — Although a small number of ships have recently passed through the Strait of Hormuz (a critical global energy transportation route), hundreds of vessels remain stranded. Iran controls the decision-making over safe passage, and a selective release pattern has already formed.
Data from commodity analysis firm Kpler shows that before the conflict erupted, about 100 oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily; today, only about 2 ships do so on average, with 400 oil tankers still stranded.
JPMorgan analysts told clients that “the vast majority of ships passing through the strait are Iranian vessels,” and Iran seems to be allowing specific ships to pass only after verification. “In reality, the strait is not officially closed, but access increasingly depends on political understanding with Tehran,” the analysts wrote. Some ships briefly detoured around the channel between Larak Island and Gasham Island near the Iranian coast before exiting the strait. JPMorgan analysts noted, “This is not a regular route; this move may be to verify ship ownership and cargo, and to allow ships unrelated to the U.S. and its allies to pass.”
Reports indicate that some ships heading to India and carrying liquefied petroleum gas have successfully passed through the strait after their governments negotiated and obtained safe passage permits with Iran. During peacetime, about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and refined products are transported via the Strait of Hormuz, and for decades, land-based alternative export routes have been extremely limited.
Despite Trump urging U.S. allies to intervene and reopen the route, responses have been tepid. As the war enters its 18th day, the U.S. promise of naval escort has yet to be fulfilled.
According to the UK Maritime Trade Operations, since the outbreak of war, a total of 21 reports have been received of ships in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman being attacked or affected, with 16 of these incidents involving attacks.