Geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan has argued that “globalization will collapse, and the United States will become the only safe superpower.” Technology thinker Balaji Srinivasan, in a lengthy article, approaches this from a different perspective, analyzing economic data, industry competition, and international situations. He believes that the global economy is returning to the Eurasian core, with American influence declining, while China continues to expand, forming a new world order of “declining U.S., rising China.”
Global Economic Center Shifts East: Power Returns from the U.S. to Eurasia
Balaji points out that, from a long-term historical perspective, the global economic center of gravity was originally located in the Eurasian continent, including China, India, the Middle East, and Europe. In the mid-20th century, due to post-World War II political and economic advantages, the U.S. became the global core and established an international order based on the United Nations, World Bank, and IMF.
Historical Changes in the Global Economic Center: By weighting GDP across regions, it shows that the global economy is shifting from the West back to Asia
However, with the end of the Cold War and deepening globalization, economies like Russia, India, and China gradually integrated into capital markets. The global economic structure has begun to revert to “multipolarity” and an “Eurasian center.” According to Purchasing Power Parity (GDP-PPP), China, India, and Russia have risen into the top five major economies worldwide, indicating that Western dominance is gradually waning.
Changes in Major Countries’ Share of Global GDP Over the Past 20 Years
Internal Pressures in the U.S.: Growing Economic and Political Divisions
Balaji further analyzes that the U.S. faces structural challenges, including industrial competition and social division. Republican supporters mainly come from groups impacted by globalization and manufacturing offshoring, while Democrats face pressures from digital age information and social changes.
Here are several different graphs of US political polarization. Whether you look at Congressmen in votes or individuals on social media, it’s rising.
2015: Plos One
2016: Vox
2017: CJR
2017: Pew… pic.twitter.com/HEN7Idl5A2
— Balaji (@balajis) March 16, 2026
Political slogans like “Make America Great Again (MAGA)” and “Build Back Better” reflect a certain consensus that the current state is worse than the past. Political polarization also makes domestic governance and long-term policy implementation more uncertain.
China Has Actually Won the Trade War: Supply Chain Competition Reshapes the Landscape
In terms of industry and trade, Balaji believes China has gained leadership in most key areas, including steel, electricity, automobiles, shipbuilding, solar energy, and rare earths. China is also the world’s largest exporter and continues to expand its influence in Europe and other markets.
The global trade dominance over the past 20 years is shifting from the U.S. to China
Although there are still gaps in high-end chips, aerospace manufacturing, and some AI technologies, China has gradually narrowed these gaps, such as advancing domestically produced C919 aircraft, developing advanced process chips, and making progress in humanoid robots and physical AI. He suggests that in the US-China trade war, China might actually be the real winner.
No U.S. Post-Global Shipping Order: China Can Take on More Roles
Regarding Zeihan’s claim that “the global shipping system will collapse after the U.S. withdraws,” Balaji offers a different interpretation. He believes that while supply chains may face short-term disruptions, in the long run, the global shipping system could be reorganized around China.
He emphasizes that China’s large shipbuilding capacity and naval strength, along with its role as a key participant in global trade, give it the motivation and ability to maintain the stability of critical shipping lanes—possibly even playing a more significant security role in the future.
Entering an Aging Society: The Economic Impact of Demographic Changes Still Unclear
Population issues are also a point of contention. Zeihan argues that China will face the “premature aging” dilemma, but Balaji points out that aging populations do not necessarily lead to economic decline, especially with automation and robotics development, which could partly compensate for labor shortages.
He also notes that the U.S. faces social structure and trust issues, including income inequality, social divisions, and governance challenges, which may prevent population advantages from fully translating into economic competitiveness.
Can the U.S. Maintain Its Isolated Advantage? Balaji: Difficult!
Regarding Zeihan’s view that “North America will remain safe and prosperous,” Balaji remains skeptical. He believes that the U.S. heavily relies on the global financial system and the dollar’s status. Once its influence declines, it could impact its economic model.
Additionally, internal political struggles, reliance on imports, and unsustainable debt levels are potential risks. However, he still sees long-term advantages for the U.S. in technology, military, and financial systems.
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From geopolitics to technological competition: the shift of power to a new era
The article concludes that today’s global competition is no longer limited to traditional geopolitics but also includes “technopolitics”—areas like AI, social media, drones, and digital finance.
In this context, the future world order may no longer be dominated by a single country but shaped by the combined influence of national power and digital networks. The U.S.-China rivalry will extend from manufacturing and trade into technology and data sovereignty.
This article, which views the continuation of American hegemony pessimistically: the world economy shifting to Eurasia, China rising to take over global shipping, first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.
