#近期投资组合分享 1. Recent core factors for the fall of BTC

1. **Macroeconomics and Policy Disturbances**
- **Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations rise**: The stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data in January 2025 (such as JOLTS job openings and ISM services index) led to a reduction in market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts from two to one, and even a possible delay in rate cuts, triggering a sell-off of risk assets.
- **Impact of Trump's Tariff Plan**: On April 3, Trump announced a reciprocal tariff policy, escalating market concerns over trade friction, with BTC falling over 5% in a single day.
- **Tightening US dollar liquidity**: The continuous strengthening of US Treasury yields and the US dollar index has weakened the attractiveness of high-risk assets such as BTC.

2. **Market Sentiment and Capital Flow**
- **High Leverage Liquidation Impact**: On March 10, the cryptocurrency market dropped across the board, with BTC hitting a low of $80,000. The total liquidation amount reached $698 million, and the liquidation of high leverage contracts intensified price fluctuations.
- **Institutional Holding Unrealized Loss Pressure**: MicroStrategy (now Strategy) holds an unrealized loss of over $900 million on the 51,000 BTC it increased in 2025, raising market concerns about its potential sell-off.

3. **Technical Correction Demand**
- After BTC attempted to break through $100,000 in January 2025 and failed, technical indicators showed overbought signals, and the price entered a correction period. The loss of key support levels (such as $83,500) triggered algorithmic trading sell-offs.

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### 2. Key Direction Forecast for the Next Few Days

1. **Short-term support and resistance levels**
- **Support Level**: If BTC can hold the range of 82,500-83,000 USD (four-hour level support), it may stabilize and rebound; if it falls below, it may test the psychological level of 80,000 USD.
- **Resistance Level**: The upper range of $86,000-$88,000 is a strong resistance zone, and a breakthrough may test $90,000.

2. **Impact of Macroeconomic Data**
- **April 10th US CPI data release**: If inflation data exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, increasing the risk of BTC fall; conversely, if the data is moderate, it may alleviate market panic.
- **Follow-up on Trump's Tariff Policy**: The market needs to further assess the impact of tariffs on global trade and tech stocks, which may trigger fluctuations linked to BTC.

3. **Market Sentiment and Capital Flow**
- **Institutional Capital Trends**: Tether increased its holdings by 700 million USD in BTC in the first quarter, indicating a long-term bullish sentiment, but caution is needed regarding short-term institutional sell-offs (such as Strategy's position pressure).
- **Retail sentiment recovery**: The current market is in a "quiet" state, with trading volume shrinking. If sentiment warms up, it may drive a rebound, but caution is needed against the spread of FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt).

4. **Technical Signals**
- **Williams Indicator and RSI**: The current market has not shown any overbought or oversold signals, and a short-term consolidation pattern may continue. If the price rebounds to around $85,500, it may trigger a short covering.

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### 3. Operational Suggestions and Risk Warnings
1. **Short-term Strategy**
- **Range Trading**: Buy low and sell high within the range of $83,500-$86,500. A breakthrough of $88,000 could allow for a light long position.
- **Risk Control**: A fall below $82,500 requires setting a stop loss (e.g., below $80,000) to avoid accelerated downside risk.

2. **Long-term perspective**
- Despite the short-term volatility, institutions like Standard Chartered Bank still predict that BTC may reach between $125,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025. Technical models (such as the Bitcoin power law) indicate a mid-term target of $115,000 to $150,000.

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### Summary
The recent fall in BTC is a combined result of "the macroeconomic hawkish shift + technical corrections + market sentiment panic." In the coming days, it is essential to focus on the CPI data on April 10 and the progress of tariff policies. If negative news materializes or support levels stabilize, there may be an oversold rebound; conversely, if it falls below $80,000, it may further test the $75,000 area. Investors should remain cautious and prioritize controlling position risk.