#美联储FOMC会议

On May 8, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is likely to continue the script of "verbal rate cuts"—not giving up the possibility of a policy shift verbally, while taking no action. This twisted stance stems from sticky inflation completely disrupting the market's rate cut expectations at the beginning of the year. Although Trump's pressure has added fuel to the fire for the Federal Reserve, Powell is more likely to choose to ignore the political noise, after all, the independence controversy in an election year is too sensitive.

In the short term, the market has already digested the expectation of "no interest rate cut," but what is truly worth monitoring are the subtle hints in the post-meeting statement. If the implication of "three rate cuts within the year" is removed, or if the dot plot tilts towards "higher for longer," the US dollar index could surge violently, directly causing gold and Bitcoin to experience a weekly-level correction. Especially in the cryptocurrency market, the recent high correlation with US tech stocks may lead BTC to become a marionette of liquidity expectations—when Wall Street begins to re-price the possibility of "zero rate cuts," the highly leveraged futures market is prone to a liquidation cascade.

However, black swans may also be hidden in dovish statements. If the Federal Reserve unexpectedly acknowledges signs of economic weakness, even if it only subtly mentions a cooling job market, it could be interpreted by the market as a prelude to interest rate cuts. In this case, risk assets may replicate the deep V rebound seen in April, but what needs to be vigilant is the volatility surge brought about by this expectation gap. For crypto investors, the skyrocketing implied volatility (IV) before and after the meeting may be the real trading opportunity.