#比特币战略储备法案 The passage of HB302 in New Hampshire is a milestone, and I believe its impact will be reflected in three areas:

1. **Limited short-term price stimulus**: A 5% allocation is relatively small, but it carries significant symbolic meaning, potentially reinforcing the narrative of "digital gold" and attracting more institutional attention;
2. **State-level Policy Domino Effect**: If the state's financial revenue is significant, cryptocurrency-friendly states like Texas and Florida may follow suit, creating a local government-level BTC reserve competition;
3. **Divergence in Attitudes of Central Banks Worldwide**: Developing countries may accelerate the inclusion of BTC in foreign exchange reserves to hedge against dollar risks, while countries like the EU may strengthen regulations to curb capital outflows.

The key risk point is whether the state government can withstand price fluctuations if liquidity tightens after the BTC halving in 2025. It is recommended to pay attention to whether the state will establish a dedicated custody solution in the future.

#美联储FOMC会议 This interest rate decision may release three key signals:
- **Hawkish Stability**: The probability of a rate cut in June has dropped from 70% to 40%, and the dot plot may indicate only one rate cut this year, which is favorable for the dollar but suppresses risk assets;
- **Balance Sheet Reduction Adjustment**: If a slowdown in QT pace is announced, it may partially offset hawkish impacts, providing structural support to the crypto market;
- **Political Game**: The independence of the Federal Reserve is tested before the election, and any wording that suggests political compromise will trigger significant market fluctuations.

It is recommended to pay attention to Powell's changing remarks on "stagflation". If he acknowledges an economic slowdown but stubborn inflation, BTC may once again exhibit a safe-haven trend decoupled from the US stock market as seen in March 2023.