The Ethereum market data is currently being pressed by market manipulators around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 2550, with both long and short positions waiting for a nuclear-level announcement. The volume spike during the early session resulted in a bearish candle with a trading volume of 80k, and after breaking through the MA10 average volume of 64k, there hasn't been a decent rebound. The divergence between volume and price is being executed more precisely than in any Wall Street trading manual. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing into a trumpet shape, and this pattern either leads to a surge in long positions or a slaughter of short positions, with the price being firmly pressed below the 5-day moving average, giving short positions a 70% chance of success.

The news about Ukraine establishing Bitcoin as a national reserve sounds impressive, but on-chain data reveals the truth - the ETH holdings of whales like BlackRock and Grayscale have plummeted by 12% in just three days, leaving clear footprints of smart money retreating. The favorable details for cryptocurrency payments announced by Dubai have hidden tricks, and the actual implementation will have to wait until the first quarter of 2026, which is merely a cover for market manipulators to offload. What can truly turn the tables is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. CME data shows a 91.7% probability of maintaining the interest rate in June, hanging the sword of Damocles over our heads, making long positions too afraid to act rashly.
The technical aspect is now playing the "Wolf is Coming" version 2.0. The support level at 2500 has been falsely broken three times today, each time dropping to 2495 only to be quickly pulled back, indicating that there is capital fishing for enforcement. The MACD daily chart histogram has shortened by 38%, and the fast and slow lines on the 4-hour chart have crossed downwards below the zero axis for the second time, with the short positions' charge sounding thunderous. However, be careful of market manipulators' counter operations. If it really breaks down with higher trade volumes below 2480, the weekly gap at 2420 will definitely need to be filled, and at that time, the perpetual contract negative fee rate could reach -0.023%, enough for the bears to have three hearty meals.
Spot traders should now best place their baskets in batches within the 2400-2450 range, and don't believe in the nonsense of "iron bottom 2300." Contract players remember that 2630 is the real pressure point; until it stabilizes, all rebounds are just paper tigers. Focus on the two critical lines at 2500 and 2630; if they break, chase the orders without blinking, and ensure to have a stop-loss with enough buffer space of 50 dollars. On-chain data doesn't lie; when big funds withdraw, following them is definitely the right move. It's not too late to re-enter once the weekly line shows a stable bullish candle.