Analyst: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is unlikely to fall below 4%.

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2025-06-25 16:00:22

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Jinse Finance reports that Daniel von Ahlen and Adrea Cicione of TS Lombard wrote that the additional yield required by investors holding longer-term U.S. Treasuries, known as the term premium, has not changed significantly recently. This stability suggests that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is unlikely to fall below 4%, because “if the risk premium does not compress significantly, there is limited room for further declines in yield.” They stated that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates below 3% in the next easing cycle, which will further support high yields.

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