ETH is at a critical node in the "dead or alive" game, and tonight's price direction may have profound implications for its future trend.

Price Trend Review

Recently, the price of Ethereum has performed impressively, briefly breaking through $4500, and is not far from the historical high of just over $4900 set in 2021. On August 12, cryptocurrency miner Bitmine Immersion submitted documents to federal regulators, planning to issue up to $20 billion in stock to purchase more Ethereum. This news brought strong momentum to the market, further driving up the price of Ethereum.

Historically, the price of Ethereum has shown significant fluctuations:

- In the early stage from 2015 to 2016, the price fluctuated between 0.4 and 10 dollars;
- In the bull market of 2017-2018, it rose to 1400 USD at the end of 2017, surged to about 1000 USD at the beginning of 2018, and then retraced significantly.
- In 2021, it reached a historical high of $4868, after which the overall market experienced fluctuations and corrections;
- During the bear market from 2022 to 2024, the price continuously declined from its peak, reaching as low as around $1200.
- As we enter 2025, the market is gently recovering amidst fluctuations, with a particularly rapid rise recently.

Key Point Analysis

- 4270 USD - Key Support Level
This price level is significant for Ethereum. If the price can hold above this level tonight, it will be a strong bullish signal from a technical perspective, indicating that there is strong buying power below and that the bulls are actively defending this line. Once this level is maintained, market confidence is likely to improve, and a large number of investors may enter the market to go long due to the expectation of a continuation of the trend, driving prices up, and potentially triggering a surge. At that time, many technical indicators will also turn positive, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) possibly rising further, showing an overbought but strong condition; moving averages may form a bullish arrangement, continuously providing support for price increases.
- 4560 USD - Important Resistance Level
$4560 is the key resistance level for Ethereum's upward breakout tonight. Although Ethereum has recently broken through $4500, it has faced significant pressure near $4560. If it cannot effectively break through this resistance tonight, it may trigger market panic. After multiple unsuccessful attempts by the bulls, they may choose to take profits, while the bears will seize the opportunity to increase selling pressure, leading to a price crash. From a market psychology perspective, there is a large accumulation of trapped positions and potential profit-taking near $4560; if the breakout fails, these positions may flood the market, creating significant downward pressure on the price.

Long and short factors game

- Bullish Factors
The crazy accumulation of coins by corporate Ethereum treasury companies is an important support for the bulls. Taking Bitmine Immersion Technologies as an example, it currently holds 1.15 million ETH, which is worth approximately 5 billion USD at current prices, accounting for about 1% of the total circulation of ETH, and it plans to issue more shares to continue increasing its holdings. This large-scale accumulation of coins reduces the market circulation and exacerbates supply and demand imbalances, providing a solid fundamental support for price increases.
At the same time, the inflow of funds into spot Ethereum ETFs is accelerating. Since being approved for listing in July 2024, its total net inflow has reached $9.4 billion, with over $5 billion coming from the past 30 days. Just this past Monday, these ETFs set a record for single-day net inflow, surpassing $1 billion for the first time. A large amount of capital flowing in through ETFs reflects the increasing recognition and allocation demand for Ethereum among traditional financial investors, providing ample momentum for the bulls.
- Short-selling factors
Despite the strong bullish momentum, bears also have opportunities to capitalize. The uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment remains a hidden danger for the cryptocurrency market. If there are significant changes in the global economic situation, such as drastic fluctuations in interest rates or an escalation of geopolitical conflicts, it may trigger risk-averse sentiment among investors, leading to a flow of funds out of the cryptocurrency market and into safer assets, and Ethereum is unlikely to be spared.
In addition, the high volatility and speculative nature of the cryptocurrency market itself also creates opportunities for short sellers. When market sentiment becomes overly heated and prices rise too quickly, it can easily trigger profit-taking and adjustments. If short sellers successfully counterattack around $4560, it is not impossible for panic selling to occur, leading to a price collapse.

Tonight, Ethereum stands at the crossroads of a "life and death" situation. Whether it can hold at $4270 or break through $4560 will determine its future trajectory. Investors are closely monitoring every change in the market, preparing to make choices in this battle between bulls and bears. Will it be a surge or a crash? Let's wait and see. #主流币山寨币上涨