Was Powell dovish or acting hawkish to scare the market nine months ago?

As the interest rate decision in September approaches, the "leading role" of the Federal Reserve, Powell, has begun his usual remarks. Every time we reach this point, he acts like a dramatic actor: as soon as he appears, the audience falls silent, and everyone starts guessing -- will he play the role of the "dovish old dove" or the "hawkish old eagle" this time?

When it comes to market sentiment, it's truly a mix of half expectation and half fear. The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will ease up and hint that interest rate cuts are just around the corner, allowing the stock market to go wild; the fear is that if Powell gets tough and says "fight inflation to the end," the market will instantly turn, and investors' wallets will deflate like a balloon with a "pop".
However, this Federal Reserve is not to be underestimated. They are well aware of the market's "overinterpretation syndrome," so when they speak, they act like "masters of leaving things unsaid." If they say too much, the market will latch onto specific words; if they say too little, people feel uncertain. Thus, Powell often chooses a golden mean: speaking halfway, allowing you to fill in the gaps yourself.

The key point is inflation. Although the data is no longer as explosive as it was last year, stubborn service industry prices are still holding up, and oil prices are also not willing to be quiet.
In this case, even if the Federal Reserve wants to cut interest rates, it has to adopt a hawkish stance—otherwise, the market may become overly optimistic, and risk assets could get too high, ultimately jeopardizing economic stability.

So this time, I judge that Powell will be "hawkish on the outside but dovish on the inside". His words are full of deterrence, but fundamentally he is leaving room for future policy adjustments. He won't tell you "September rate cut", but he won't close the door completely either. After all, the Federal Reserve has never been a babysitter for children, but rather a psychologist for the financial market, occasionally needing to give you a "tranquilizer".

Don't ask whether Powell is a hawk or a dove this time, just ask -- he is the bird that "pretends to scare you, but secretly feeds you milk." In the investment circle, understanding the performance is more important than understanding the words. #加密市场反弹 #美联储7月会议纪要