Encryption cycle new narrative: Why is this bull run different from 2017 and 2021?

Since the beginning of this bull run, we have repeatedly emphasized its uniqueness — it is neither the "ICO craze" of 2017 nor the "metaverse feast" of 2021. Cycle analysis based on Elliott Wave Theory shows that the current market is in a completely different operational phase compared to the previous two bull runs.

In the classic framework of wave theory, the third wave is often the most brilliant chapter of the market: prices gallop like wild horses, market sentiment falls into madness, and new narratives emerge one after another. Bitcoin in 2017 showcased an epic leap from $1,000 to $20,000 in its third wave, while Dogecoin in 2021 surged 300% in a single day amid Musk's Twitter storm. These phenomenal market movements are essentially an extreme interpretation of the emotional characteristics of the third wave.

However, in the current cycle, Bitcoin's upward rhythm resembles a carefully orchestrated slow movement. Since its launch from $16,000, its price increase curve exhibits textbook-like "wave-like progress" characteristics: each breakthrough is accompanied by ample consolidation, and the release of trading volume has become more rational. This structural difference is particularly evident in the altcoin market—gone are the days of "hundredfold coins" that created wealth myths, replaced instead by the steady rise of infrastructure projects.

The market sentiment indicators provide strong evidence for this: the greed index continues to hover in the "neutral" range, on-chain data shows that the holdings of whales are stabilizing, and while the total locked value in DeFi has increased, the growth rate is slowing down. All of this points to a fact: the current market is at a critical stage of cyclical transition, which is neither the exuberance of the third wave nor the finale of the fifth wave, but rather a transitional period full of possibilities.

The impact of this difference is profound: the rise of Bitcoin is more sustainable, the differentiation of altcoins will further intensify, and the entire market's valuation system is undergoing reconstruction. For investors, understanding this structural difference may be more important than chasing short-term hotspots. After all, in the long river of wave theory, true opportunities often breed in the gaps of cognition. #山寨币市值上涨2.64%