$BTC/USDT

Current price: $111,154 (located in the upper half of the 70% value zone)
Target Price:

- Short Position: TP1 $110,102 (HVN①), TP2 $109,372 (Bollinger Lower Band)
- Long position: TP1 $112,982 (POC), TP2 $114,278 (LVN①)
Stop-loss price:
- Short position: $111,957 (Bollinger upper band +0.5 ATR)
- Long position: $109,372 (Bollinger lower band)

Bearish logic:
$BTC/USDT is showing a high position oscillation warning signal, with a resonance between the technical and funding aspects:

1. Structural Integrity:
- The price is at the 76% percentile of the upper Bollinger Band, with overbought conditions persisting, deviating from MA200 ($110,096) by +1.14%, indicating a demand for mean reversion;
- POC $112,982 (47k BTC) constitutes the mid-term trend lifeline; if it falls below, the bullish logic will be invalidated.
2. Price-Volume Relationship:
- High Volume Buffer Zone:
• HVN① $110,102–$110,246 (37k BTC) serves as a "safety cushion" for bullish pullbacks;
• HVN② $111,254–$111,398 (43k BTC) is the main battleground for long and short positions within the day, with Down Vol accounting for 53%;
- Vacuum gap:
• LVN① $119,607–$119,751 (7k BTC) acceleration zone after breakout;
• LVN② $107,221–$107,365 (1.9k BTC) If it breaks down, it will directly test $106K.
3. Fund Flow:
- The 24-hour contract positions decreased by 0.74%, with funds slightly flowing out for 4 consecutive hours, and the bulls did not increase their positions;
- The perpetual contract funding rate is +0.008% (neutral to bullish), but the open interest has not reached a new high, indicating a lack of willingness to chase higher prices.
4. Kinetic Verification:
- The POC area is balanced between long and short positions (Up/Down=51:49), but there is slightly more selling pressure from HVN at the upper range of $113,558–$113,702 (Down Vol 53%);
- Below, the $110,677 HVN buy orders dominate (Up Vol 55%), and there is still support on the pullback.
5. Period Judgment:
- The medium-term upward trend remains unchanged, but the short-term is at the "end of a high-level consolidation," and the direction selection window is approaching.

Trading Strategy:

1. Radical short position: Current price $111,354 light short, stop loss $111,957, target $110,102, profit-loss ratio ≈ 2.1;
2. Stable Long Position: Buy in batches on the pullback at $110,246–$110,102, stop loss at $109,372, target at $112,982, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.9;
3. Conservative breakout long: Break through $113,126 and 15-minute Up Vol > 60% to go long, stop loss at $112,550, target $114,278, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.8.

Risk Control:

- Expiration conditions: If the 1-hour closing price falls below $109,372 or breaks out above $114,278 with increased volume, a reversal to follow the trend is required;
- Macroeconomic Risks: Changes in Federal Reserve policies or black swan events may amplify volatility, it is recommended to operate with a light position.

This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. #山寨币市值上涨2.64%