Regardless of whether there will be an interest rate cut in September, the market is unlikely to experience a big dump! The underlying logic can be understood through these three points.

The current market focus is entirely on the interest rate cut in September, with the media stirring up expectations every day. However, regardless of the final outcome, waiting for the market to easily experience a big dump is likely to be in vain. The core reason lies in the two types of market trends:

First: If interest rates are really cut in September, the market will not "rise all the way."

Don't think that a rate cut will lead to a big bull market - when the news comes out, the market may rally on expectations, but it will soon enter a "gradual decline and fluctuation" phase. After all, most people are waiting for "rate cuts to trade small coins," and this "national consensus" will actually delay the market: the main players won't easily lift the market, but will instead use 2-3 months of fluctuation to wash out those who can't wait. According to this rhythm, even if there is a rate cut in September, the small coin market may not truly start until around mid-November.

Second: If there is no interest rate cut in September, the market will not "directly crash".

Not lowering interest rates does not mean a big dump; it is more likely to be "fall first, then pull back," followed by continued consolidation. After all, the market has long had the expectation of "it will be reduced sooner or later"; after a short-term adjustment, funds will still wait for policy implementation. When the subsequent interest rate cuts are truly realized, the trend will coincide with the first scenario—still needing to go through a period of volatile consolidation before looking for opportunities in small coins.

Key conclusion: Patience is more important than anxiety

Actually, there is no need to get tangled up in whether interest rates will be lowered or not; there are two logics that will not change:

1. The small coin market will eventually come: there is no normal financial market that can support a bull market by relying on "one or two coins rising alone"—whether it is the past stock market, futures, or the current crypto market, rotation is inevitable.
2. The main force is "forcing retail investors to exit through fluctuations": this bear market does not have the extreme big dump of March 2020, so the main force has changed its strategy - using repeated horizontal trading and slight falls to wear down the mentality, waiting for retail investors to be unable to hold on and exit before starting a real market.

So there's no need to panic now, nor rush to buy the dip or sell at the peak. It's more useful to maintain a steady mindset and wait for the fluctuations to end than to guess the market every day. #非农就业数据来袭