2025-09-20 05:10:07

Technical Analysis is a summary of historical experience, and its effectiveness appears in the form of probability.

Does a double top pattern always lead to a decline? It could also turn into a consolidation box that continues to rise; we often say a golden cross indicates a long position while a death cross indicates a short position. Does a golden cross always mean it will rise? It could also just oscillate after the cross. We can only say that when a golden cross occurs, the K-line has already risen, causing the moving average to turn upward and generate a golden cross, increasing the probability of a rise. Everything is just a matter of probability.

As for some people saying that I can judge when it has reached the peak, or that I will sell only after it has peaked, there is fundamentally no such technical analysis in the world. No one can definitively determine when it has peaked; it is all just a matter of probability. When a new signal appears, the probability of reaching the peak increases, and when a new signal appears, the probability of hitting the bottom increases... It is merely that the probability might be slightly higher, just like when it is cloudy, the chance of rain increases, but it does not mean that it will definitely rain.
#交易员的自我修养

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LanQiqiGe

· 2025-09-20 05:10

Technical Analysis is a summary of historical experience, and its effectiveness appears in the form of probability. Does a double top pattern necessarily fall? It may also turn into a trading range rise Relay; we often say that a golden cross is bullish while a death cross is bearish. Does a golden cross necessarily mean a rise? It may also oscillate after the cross; we can only say that when the golden cross occurs, the K-line has already risen, causing the moving average to turn up and generate a golden cross, thus increasing the probability of a rise. It's all just a matter of probability. As for some people saying that they can judge when the peak is reached, or that they will sell when it reaches the peak, there is fundamentally no such technology for judgment in the world. No one can determine when the peak is reached; it's all just probabilities. When a new signal appears, the probability of reaching the peak increases. When another new signal appears, the probability of hitting the bottom increases... It's merely a probability that might be slightly higher, just like when it's cloudy, the probability of rain increases, but it doesn't mean it will definitely rain just because it's cloudy. #交易员的自我修养#

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