Ethereum (ETH) market analysis and trading strategy on the afternoon of October 6

1. Core Logic of the Market: The short-term trend has shifted from bullish to bearish, with clear correction signals.

Observing the 1-hour K-line period, the price of Ethereum completed a key trend switch in the afternoon session—effectively breaking below the three short-term support levels of MA5 (5-period moving average), MA20 (20-period moving average), and MA60 (60-period moving average). Moreover, MA5 has already crossed below MA20, forming a "short-term death cross," while MA20 is approaching MA60 from below, indicating the initial emergence of a "mid-term death cross" pattern. This technical signal suggests that the short-term buying momentum that previously propelled the price rebound has significantly weakened, market sentiment has shifted from "actively chasing more" to "wait-and-see for risk avoidance," and bearish forces are beginning to dominate the short-term trend, resulting in ongoing accumulation of pullback pressure.

From the perspective of volume coordination, when the price breaks through the moving average range, the hourly trading volume expands simultaneously, indicating that this breakout is not a "low volume false breakdown", but rather that there is real short capital entering the market, further confirming the validity of the short-term trend reversal; at the same time, during the price pullback process, the trading volume during the rebound phase continues to shrink, which also verifies that the bullish support willingness is insufficient, making it difficult to form effective rebound resistance.

2. Key Point Analysis: Support and resistance are clear, and the pullback space is measurable.

1. Resistance level: The rebound pressure zone is clear.

The primary resistance range for a short-term rebound is $4550-$4600. This range is not only the "lower edge of the platform" for the previous price consolidation but also the current convergence position of the MA5 and MA20 that have been broken. At the same time, it corresponds to the "neckline" of the previous pullback on the 1-hour candlestick chart. If the price rebounds to this range, it will face dual pressure from the previous trapped positions being released and short positions being increased, making it the core battleground for short-term shorting.

2. Support level: The pullback target is clearly defined in stages.

• First support level (primary target): $4450, this level is the "key retracement platform" during the price rebound process from late September to early October, which has withstood multiple short-term corrections. The market has a strong psychological expectation for this point, and the first correction is likely to stabilize briefly here.

• Second support level (secondary target): $4350, corresponding to the lower boundary of the "uptrend line" on the 1-hour candlestick chart, which is also the "cost center" of the previous rebound starting point. If it falls below $4450, this position will become the next main target for bears.

• Third support level (extreme target): 4200 USD, this point is the "starting support" of the rebound since October, and is also close to the upper edge of the previous fluctuation range. If the market correction exceeds expectations, this position will be the "lifeline" for the short-term bulls and bears.

3. Trading Strategy: Shorting based on resistance, controlling risks in stages.

1. Core operation: Focus on shorting rebounds, refuse to blindly catch the bottom.

• Entry range: Prioritize laying short positions in the 4550-4600 USD range. If the price rebound is weak, a small position can be tried in the 4530-4550 USD range, ensuring the entry point is within the "core resistance area" to improve the risk-reward ratio;

• Target execution: Using a "staggered take profit" strategy, the first target is $4450 (take profit on 30%-40% of the position), the second target is $4350 (take profit on another 30%-40% of the position), and the remaining position is left until the third target of $4200. At the same time, adjust flexibly according to market fluctuations. If a rebound signal with volume appears at a certain support level, the remaining position can be closed early;

• Stop Loss Setting: Strictly set the stop loss above $4630 (i.e., the recent 1-hour K-line high point + 30 points of buffer), to avoid triggering the stop loss due to slight price spikes, while controlling each position to be 2%-3% of the total capital to mitigate risks in extreme market conditions.

2. Risk Warning: Be cautious of short-term sentiment reversals.

• If the price shows a "bullish engulfing" candlestick pattern at the support level of $4450, or if it is accompanied by a rebound in major sectors (such as BTC), one should be cautious that the short-term pullback may be ending and timely adjust the short position strategy;

• If important macroeconomic data (such as fluctuations in the US dollar index or cryptocurrency market policy news) is released during the afternoon session, it may break the technical trend. It is essential to closely monitor the resonance/divergence signals between the news and technical aspects to avoid solely relying on technical analysis for operations. #BTC再创新高 #行情