💭 Market thoughts: NOW OR NEVER

Apologies to everyone who waited in vain for an update — a rather nasty virus knocked me out for a few days. But the delay wasn’t really tragic: BTC is trading almost exactly where my last update ended. So unless you got caught chasing short-term fake moves and let emotions take over, you probably stayed relatively relaxed and bored.

If we’re honest, the market has felt like a stretched rubber band for weeks now. Equities at all-time highs, gold entering consolidation, first gold miners and now BTC miners in full gear — and $BTC? Still idling.

But anyone who’s been around long enough knows: it’s exactly these kinds of phases that precede the big repricing moves. I was saying this since September already, I know. And some might start to doubt the thesis every day a bit more… Which is fine. It’s by design. Time-based capitulation happens because people lose their hopes, trust and money within a prolonged chop episode. Just like the one we are experiencing since early September. So yeah, my Thesis really did not change and I stay bullish. But with every day passing and BTC stays at the same price, the probability of a major last leg up gets smaller and smaller as a matter of fact.

As I explained early September ( - In previous cycles it was almost textbook: whenever gold’s rally began to stall and move sideways, Bitcoin started to catch up. We saw it in 2020, 2016, and 2013 — every time capital rotated out of traditional “hard money trades” (gold, silver, and sometimes mining stocks) into the digital store of value. And that’s precisely the setup we’re seeing again now. Gold is showing its first signs of fatigue after a massive run, while BTC miners like RIOT, HUT, and MARA keep attracting capital. Historically, that’s a highly bullish signal — the market gearing up for the next risk-on stage.

I just think people are looking for the wrong bullish signs here and overestimate the size of the window of opportunity..: Right now, many eyes are fixed on macro catalysts like “End of QT” or potential rate cuts — and yes, on paper that sounds bullish. But believing that’s the actual trigger for the next rally is naive. The entire uptrend since 2023 unfolded under the tightest monetary conditions of the past decade — right in the middle of the most aggressive QT cycle ever. The market doesn’t need Fed stimulus to move higher. It needs confidence, momentum, and rotation. And that’s exactly what’s starting to show. The narrative that “end of QT automatically means start of QE” is completely misplaced as well. QE doesn’t return while markets are stable — it requires structural stress, a crash, panic & on top: people who want to hoard cash and not willing to buy into risk. Exactly the opposite of what we’re seeing right now. Anyone expecting a new liquidity wave from the Fed is more than likely wrong. The market has already priced those hopes in — just like it typically rallies before rate cuts and consolidates afterwards.

Instead, the real action is in equities. TradFi remains the metronome for everything that happens in crypto. Bitcoin doesn’t correlate symmetrically with equities — but the downside correlation is brutal. When stocks wobble, crypto follows. That’s why it’s crucial to watch structural strength and weakness in the big names — META, AMZN, NVDA, GOOG, MSFT. As long as those charts keep trending higher and the NASDAQ avoids a topping structure, the upside potential for crypto remains wide open:

This is also where the options market comes into play. At the end of October, analysts started talking about a possible “gamma-driven melt-up.” That means market makers are heavily short gamma — they’re forced to buy back equities as prices rise to hedge their books. A mechanical setup that can accelerate rallies without any new fundamental catalyst. If that squeeze kicks in, it wouldn’t causea Bitcoin rally, but it could very well be the spark that ignites an overdue catch-up.

📈 Technically, Bitcoin remains in a structurally sound position. The range might feel endless, but that’s classic time-based capitulation: weakness through boredom, not through genuine selling pressure. Key supports are intact, miners are leading, and sentiment already shows the impatience typical of late-stage consolidations — exactly the kind of fuel markets need before breaking out.

Many now doubt the four-year cycle, claiming the pattern is dead. “Everyone knows it, so it can’t work anymore,” they say. But that logic is flawed. When something has worked so consistently, the burden of proof lies with those arguing otherwise. Bitcoin has already done a 7–8x since the 2023 lows — that’s anything but a weak bull market. Only those who were late, anxious, or overly skeptical – or all-in into trashy shitcoins - call that disappointing.

For me however, the current window is clearly defined: Now or Never.
If Bitcoin can reclaim its previous high and confirm 116K, the door opens for the final leg up. If strength fails to materialize, we risk a prolonged sideways phase into 2026. Or worst case: we lose 100k and call it a day/cycle.
But as we’re playing it level by level: everything still points to the market gearing up for expansion — the moment when “TradFi strength” & “Gold consoldation” turns into “crypto follow-through.”

You don’t need to be a prophet to see that we’re standing at a decisive threshold. The big players have delivered. Miners are running. Gold is consolidating. Capital is rotating. Now it’s up to Bitcoin to prove once again what makes it unique: the ultimate late bloomer of every bull market — and the one that always ends up accelerating the hardest, leaving sideliners in agony.

Patience. Less is more.