The phrase "altcoin does not follow the fall" actually hides significant risks - it must never serve as a basis for going long. Looking back at every major downtrend cycle, similar scripts have repeatedly played out:

1. The fall of altcoins relative to BTC is gradually converging, and even showing short-term strength;
2. BTC.D (Bitcoin Market Cap Dominance) begins to fall;
3. However, the core contradiction lies in the fact that the overall market value (especially the TOTAL and TOTAL ex-BTC indices) continues to decline sharply.

It should be clear that there will also be a fall in BTC.D during the weekly upward trend, but the environments in which the two are situated are vastly different and must not be confused.

During the falling cycle, the so-called "altcoin does not follow the fall" is often the result of market evolution, rather than the cause of a trend reversal:

1. Altcoins first experience a severe drop in a state of panic, with beta (volatility) being drastically amplified;
2. Market makers, liquidity providers (LP), and institutional portfolios continuously rebalance overall positions, single-coin risks, and Value at Risk (VaR) under the constraints of risk control rules;
3. Some altcoins have shown a "relatively strong" appearance against BTC due to the absolute price fall being too deep, the selling pressure gradually exhausting during this phase, combined with passive buying or short covering.

From the price performance perspective, this phenomenon is easily misinterpreted as "the altcoin season is coming", but in essence, it is the result of extreme volatility and risk rebalancing working together, rather than the core driving force of a new round of increase.

Using "altcoin does not follow the fall" as a basis for price prediction is essentially a lazy judgment logic. The core issue that deserves deeper exploration is:
Is the current fall close to the key risk range of large positions? Is there any structural forced buying entering the market (such as strong liquidation counterparties, arbitrage between futures and spot prices, triggering of arbitrage structures)?
Or is it simply because the active buying pressure is extremely weak, resulting in a passive risk control adjustment that creates the illusion of "seeming like there is capital taking over" in the price?

It is especially important to emphasize: if BTC.D is declining while the TOTAL index continues to trend weakly, this type of "altcoin relative anti-fall" is more like an "optical illusion" in a bear market structure, and is by no means a signal worth leveraging for profit.

The "altcoin season" that truly has participatory value must meet at least three major conditions:

1. The total market capitalization has significantly expanded, with volume and price resonating upward.
2. Mainstream altcoins are showing a weekly upward trend relative to BTC, rather than a short-term rebound after being oversold;
3. The breadth of the market continues to improve - the rise is a sector-wide trend, rather than the "solo dance" of individual narrative coins.

Before this, "altcoin does not follow the fall" should be regarded as a risk warning: the risk is spreading from the core large coins to the more fragile and less liquid long-tail assets, while the market's real active buying has not substantively returned.
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