#山寨币周期开启？ $BTC $ETH

Everyone is fixated on the K-line's continuous decline, but have you ever thought about - where does the money come from, and where is it going?

Recent overlooked actions may illustrate the issue better than any technical analysis:

Japan is serious about it. A fiscal stimulus plan worth 170 trillion yen has been implemented, and this is no small matter. Once yen assets start to release liquidity outward, the global pool of funds will have an East Asian faucet.

In November, there was a net injection of 500 billion domestically. On the surface, it seems to stabilize domestic demand, but in reality, during a time of global liquidity tightening, this money serves as a buffer. Don't underestimate this seemingly inward-looking operation; its stabilizing effect in the global financial chain is not to be ignored.

It's more interesting over in the U.S., three things came together:

The government shutdown crisis is resolved, and the financial channels are open again;
As of December 1, QT is coming to an end, and the Federal Reserve needs to hit the brakes on balance sheet reduction.
There is nearly one trillion US dollars lying in TGA accounts, and it is expected that 300 billion will flow out in the coming months.

These three actions happen simultaneously, and it is rare for fiscal and monetary policy to align. A glance at historical data shows that when this combination appears, the logic of asset pricing often changes.

The current market sentiment and liquidity are playing a contrasting role. Retail investors see pullbacks and volatility, while institutions are actually quietly observing a recovery in global dollar liquidity indicators.

Japan is opening the valve, China is stabilizing its injections, and the US is ramping up with triple measures—when the liquidity of these three major economies begins to resonate, smart money is already repositioning.

The crypto market can be supported by sentiment in the short term, but in the long term, it still depends on macro liquidity. The scale of the water level is shifting.

Remember an old saying: Pessimists see things accurately, but optimists make the money. While most people are worried about the market, a few are already flipping through the balance sheets of major central banks.