#美股2026展望 In this bear market cycle, my personal judgment is that the quickest it could end is in half a year, but if it drags on, we might have to endure a whole year.

Key turning point? The big bearish candle on October 10 last year was the real starting gun. After the W pattern at the top, that drop shattered the bulls' last illusions—profit-takers fled in panic, and the trend was set in stone.

The recent sharp decline in the US stock market is also sending a signal: the previous bubble was too exaggerated, and now we're entering the bubble-squeezing phase. With the traditional market in such dire straits, crypto assets definitely can't escape the spillover effect. Especially those altcoins—who dares to be the bag holder now? So my current strategy is simple—either hold tight to Bitcoin or honestly accumulate stablecoins.

The reason to keep holding BTC is simple: there's always the possibility of a "black swan revaluation." For example, if a sovereign country suddenly announces it will include Bitcoin in its national reserves, that kind of event is enough to rewrite the entire narrative. But altcoins? Basically, don’t expect any miraculous comebacks—if you see a rebound, it’s best to reduce your position quickly.

Some people are thinking about shorting altcoins for profit, but I advise caution. For an asset of BTC’s size, value support and short-term sentiment often clash, making it hard to decide what to do. Altcoins don’t have this issue—because they lack long-term value anchors in the first place. ETH is a bit stronger than other altcoins, but its fundamental consensus still isn’t enough to support blind long-term holding. As for BTC’s support levels, 80,000 and 78,000 are pretty weak—real support should be around 75,000.

Based on the current situation: counting from October, the bear market could last up to a year. But if economic policies shift early—like a combination of interest rate cuts and quantitative easing—this correction could be over in six months, and then we’d likely enter a period of consolidation or a technical rebound.

The ETF is essentially an emotion amplifier: in a bull market, it drives the rally even harder; in a bear market, it multiplies the selling pressure. The current downturn is a perfect example of ETFs amplifying panic. As for what technical innovations will appear in the next year, it’s really hard to say.