1

The USDT to RMB exchange rate suddenly fell below the 7.0 mark, surprising many seasoned players. Anyone who’s been in the space for three or four years knows that the USDT price has long been stable in the 7.1–7.3 range, so dropping below 7 is indeed rare.

**Two Factors at Play**

There are market rumors that the US may adjust its monetary policy direction, with the probability of a rate cut in December now priced in by the market at nearly 90%. Once expectations of a weaker dollar set in, capital starts seeking alternative outlets. At the same time, regulatory actions targeting illegal cross-border flows using stablecoins have clearly intensified recently, leading to a concentrated sell-off of USDT for risk avoidance, which has sharply increased supply-side pressure.

**Strange Price Divergence**

The USDT price is falling, but mainstream coins like ETH have seen single-day gains of 10%. The logic behind this isn’t hard to understand: when traditional fiat currencies are under devaluation pressure, some funds use crypto assets as a hedging tool. Historical experience shows that before every market rally, stablecoins often experience brief price volatility. Some people have already started stockpiling USDT at 6.95, betting on the spread profit if it returns to 7.5.

**Tighter Withdrawal Environment**

Many users have reported that their receiving accounts have been put under risk control, and some have even been directly restricted from trading. In the current environment, remember these operational principles:

• Avoid unfamiliar counterparties as much as possible
• Split large amounts into smaller batches for processing
• Prioritize long-term, trusted channels

Don’t risk your account’s safety for a small exchange rate difference—security comes first.

**Arbitrage Opportunity vs. Compliance Risk**

In theory, with USDT at 6.95 and the official USD exchange rate at 7.05, a spread does exist. But whether you can take advantage of it depends on whether you have a compliant way to operate. Playing in gray areas carries extremely high risks—your account could be frozen before you even see any profits.

The market is now split into two camps: newcomers are asking “Is something wrong with USDT?” while veterans are quietly buying the dip. Do you think the break below 7 is a crisis signal, or a short-term arbitrage opportunity?