#数字资产生态回暖 The Bank of Japan's rate hike on December 18-19 is imminent: gold faces short-term volatility, but the medium-term bullish logic remains solid

1. The rate hike is almost certain, and the focus now is on the subsequent divergence

The market is almost unanimous: economists and traders' expectations are remarkably aligned. A 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December to 0.75% is a sure thing. The real debate is about the next move—how will they raise rates? The market generally bets that by September 2026, rates will reach 1.0%, eventually stabilizing at 1.5%. However, Nomura Securities has poured cold water on this expectation, suggesting it might be too aggressive, and rates may only rise to 1.0% by January 2027. Japan's economy is weak, with heavy debt burdens, so the BOJ's room to raise rates is actually quite limited.

2. Short-term vs long-term outlook for gold

Recent pressure is unavoidable: rate hikes will lead to concentrated unwinding of carry trades, and many investors will sell gold to buy yen and repay debts. In the short term, gold could drop by 1.5%-3%, and unrealized gains could trigger stop-loss cascades.

But the medium- to long-term support remains intact: Japan's economy continues to weaken, real wages are still declining, and the BOJ's rate hike capacity is far less aggressive than imagined, limiting pressure on gold; additionally, yen appreciation will weaken the dollar's dominance, and central banks worldwide are still buying gold steadily. The de-dollarization wave is ongoing, providing long-term backing for gold.

Buy-the-dip strategy: accumulate in batches around $4,200, using the 20-day moving average to protect stop-loss levels!