Does Short-Term Bitcoin Holding Really Profit? Data from 2025 Has Spoken

Bitcoin Price Volatility in 2025 can be described by two words: fierce and unpredictable. Prices continuously set new all-time highs, then quickly correct sharply, causing many long-term investors to become stressed. However, amidst this highly volatile picture, a group of investors quietly gained an advantage in profits: Short-Term Bitcoin Holders, specifically addresses holding BTC from 1 to 3 months. On-chain data in 2025 is gradually revealing an interesting truth: short-term exposure to Bitcoin has generated profits for most of the year, despite recent sharp declines. Short-Term Investors Profited Most of 2025 According to CryptoQuant analysis, Bitcoin’s short-term holder group was in profit for about 66% of the trading days in 2025, equivalent to 230 days. This is a significant figure given the market’s continuous volatility. In the first half of 2025, Bitcoin’s price mostly traded above the short-term holder’s realized price (realized price). This means investors buying during this period had a relatively easy opportunity to take profits, especially during strong rallies. The Boom Phase: When Bitcoin Surpasses $100,000 During the price surges mid-year, Bitcoin repeatedly crossed the $100,000 mark, significantly expanding the profit margins for short-term holders. The peak was in July, when Bitcoin broke through the $115,000 zone, with the unrealized profit margin (unrealized profit margin) reaching 20%. From May to October, the market maintained an extremely favorable period for short-term holders. Despite continuous profit-taking, selling pressure was well absorbed thanks to institutional capital flows, especially large funds pouring into spot Bitcoin ETFs, helping prices sustain an upward trend. The Negative Turning Point: Rapid Profit Erosion However, that bright picture changed markedly in recent weeks. Currently, the average cost basis for short-term holders is around $100,000, while Bitcoin is trading around $90,000. This causes the profit/loss margin to turn negative by 10%. More notably, in November, when Bitcoin fell below $85,000, the short-term holder’s loss widened to -20%, marking the heaviest loss phase for this group in all of 2025. Conclusion: Short-Term Holding Wins, But Risks Are Increasing Overall, the short-term Bitcoin holding strategy in 2025 clearly generated profits for most of the year. However, historical data also shows that “big loss pockets” like the current one often appear at the end of a correction cycle. This raises an important warning: Short-term holding can be very effective in an uptrend.However, when the market enters a weakening structural phase, this group of investors faces the greatest pressure. In the upcoming period, risk management, position control, and not overly expecting short-term rebounds will be crucial for those still choosing a short-term trading strategy with Bitcoin.