2025-12-15 14:33:35

The US labor market is coming to a halt:

The total nonfarm hiring rate fell -0.2 percentage points in October, to 3.2%, the lowest since the 2020 pandemic bottom.

Over the last 4 years, this figure has declined -1.4 percentage points, to levels in-line with December 2008.

By comparison, during the 2001 recession, the hiring rate was much higher, at 3.7%-4.0%.

Furthermore, the private hiring rate fell to 3.5% in October, the lowest since January 2011 and in-line with the 2020 lows.

The US labor market has stalled

The slowdown in the labor market and its reflection in official data will change expectations for a January interest rate cut.

#FedRateCutPrediction

Aguofthe

2025-12-10 21:38:34

82% chance of Fed maintaining rate in January, per traders on Kalshi.

#FedRateCutPrediction

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