Ran some consensus modeling on Solstice Finance's market trajectory around TGE launch. Market data suggests SLX is pricing in around $100 million valuation with decent conviction (60.5% probability within the first 24 hours post-TGE), while expectations for a $200 million jump look less likely at 23.5% probability.

What's interesting is the FDV to TVL ratio sitting at roughly 1:3 right now. That's a pretty healthy multiple if the protocol can deliver on its value capture mechanics. The question becomes whether these market probabilities hold once actual trading volume comes in, or if we see classic TGE volatility shake things out differently.