#加密生态动态追踪 Bitcoin drops to $85,000. On the surface, it seems to be caused by rate hikes, but the deeper killer is actually hidden in everyone's heart.

Market reversal is too quick: a sudden plunge in Bitcoin wiped out nearly $600 million in contracts, and 170,000 traders immediately went zero. Many point to possible rate hike policies by the Bank of Japan—historical data shows that each rate hike cycle usually causes Bitcoin to plummet by over 20%.

But is it really that simple this time?

Wall Street has already anticipated this variable. What’s more upsetting is that uncertainty has suddenly increased due to changes in the Federal Reserve chairman, with hawkish forces regaining the upper hand. Once policy direction shifts towards tightening, global liquidity will immediately contract, and digital assets will be hit hardest.

The root of the problem isn’t the policy itself, but the misalignment of expectations. The Fed talks about lowering rates, but in practice, they’re quite restrained: only one cut all year. Yet the market is still dreaming of three cuts next year. This divergence is like a sword hanging over your head— the more you fear rate hikes, the more your fears are amplified, ultimately leading to a reverse expectation trap.

The rule of the crypto world is very brutal: it’s not the market that kills, but expectations that kill. Everyone tries to guess the policy direction in advance, but ends up trapped by their own judgments. History doesn’t repeat linearly, but human nature always cycles—greed and fear alternate.

The traders who truly survive are often not the ones most frequently looking at candlestick charts, but those who can spot expectation traps earlier than others. Don’t get caught up in short-term price fluctuations; instead, focus on who is driving this wave of sentiment. The market is like a mirror, often reflecting your own fears.

Ultimately, if you want to survive stably in this market, you must abandon those beautiful illusions and face the truth with calm logic. The signals are right in front of you; the key is whether you can see through them before others do.