2025-12-16 02:23:12

There is a chart that particularly illustrates the point—how low is the probability that an ordinary investor can pick a "dark horse" from among numerous blue-chip stocks.

The S&P 100 Index includes the top 100 companies in the US stock market. These are giants in their respective fields, large in scale, highly liquid, and financially stable, with each actively involved in derivatives markets. Even the smallest names on the bubble chart are among the top in their industries.

To precisely pick the best-performing company among these 100 top firms, such as a winner like PLTR? The chance of randomly selecting it is only 1%. It might not sound very low, but there's a trap here—the probability that you hit those declining stocks on the left is actually dozens of times higher.

The data is quite sobering. There are still dozens of companies in the S&P 100 that are currently losing money, with the worst being UNH, which has fallen by 33%. This truly reflects the reality for most retail investors: it's not that they haven't made the right choices, but that it's very easy to pick wrong.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

18 Likes

Reward
18
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

AlwaysAnon

· 2025-12-19 02:14

1% chance of being correct, but the chance of hitting a mine is dozens of times higher—that's the fate of retail investors.

View OriginalReply0

MemeKingNFT

· 2025-12-17 16:22

1% chance to pick the winner, 99% chance to be the sacrificial lamb... Isn't this the complete reflection of my NFT journey? --- That hits hard. Retail stock picking is like on-chain blind boxes, mostly hitting the floor price. --- So instead of struggling to find the dark horse, it's better to follow the trend and build consensus at the bottom. That's the survival strategy for on-chain players. --- When UNH dropped 33%, I thought of my digital collectibles account... it's all tears. --- The probability of picking a ten-bagger out of a thousand stocks is about the same as guessing the start point of a certain Dogecoin — all depends on luck and market sentiment. --- With such obvious bearish signals, why are some still going all-in on a single stock? They should learn patience during the bottoming phase. --- Speaking of which, with blue chips so competitive, why not turn around and embrace on-chain assets... at least the data is on-chain, so you can see the real flow.

View OriginalReply0

TxFailed

· 2025-12-17 07:03

ngl the math here is brutal... 1% to pick the winner but like 100x easier to baghold the loser. learned that lesson watching UNH crater, actually.

Reply0

JustHereForAirdrops

· 2025-12-16 02:51

There's a 1% chance of picking the winner, but dozens of times the risk of falling into a trap— isn't this just retail investors' daily routine...

View OriginalReply0

DegenMcsleepless

· 2025-12-16 02:50

A 1% chance? Forget it, I'll just go all in on a certain coin. At least if I lose, I can blame the blockchain.

View OriginalReply0

StakeWhisperer

· 2025-12-16 02:27

There's only a 1% chance of choosing correctly, but the chance of hitting a mine is dozens of times higher... This is the reality. Retail investors dare not choose randomly.

View OriginalReply0