Tonight at 21:30, the US November Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released, and the entire market is holding its breath. Wall Street's reaction is quite interesting — it has fallen into a kind of "split" state.

Why is that? The logic is actually quite straightforward:

If employment data shows weakness, expectations for Fed rate cuts will soar, theoretically boosting the stock market and potentially leading to a large sell-off of the dollar. Conversely, if the data is too strong, expectations for rate cuts will cool down, and the market might adjust accordingly. It seems simple and clear, but there is a big hidden risk here.

Due to the impact of the US government shutdown earlier, there is a backlog in statistical work. Tonight’s report is likely to contain errors, and there is considerable room for subsequent revisions. This causes institutional investors to hesitate — regardless of the outcome, they dare not fully commit. The entire market has entered a "wait-and-see, look for signals" oscillation mode.

The current signals are fragmented: gold has risen, indicating risk aversion is stirring but not yet panic; crude oil is falling, suggesting expectations for economic demand are cooling; Bitcoin has sharply retraced, reflecting concerns about tightening liquidity.

Simply put — the market is "betting on the data," but the data itself is "waiting for revisions." For traders, this is a high-risk, high-reward time window. It’s best to manage risks carefully, as volatility could erupt at any moment.