A major event is coming. The US November Non-Farm Payrolls report, originally scheduled for December 5th, was postponed due to the government shutdown and has been rescheduled to Tuesday, December 16th at 21:30 Beijing time. This report will also include supplementary information for October.

This is not just any data. The market is now widely expecting an increase of 50,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to around 4.5%. Why is this so important? Because it directly determines the state of the US economy and also influences the trajectory of inflation next year. In simple terms, it serves as a key indicator for whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next year and by how much. Analysts at Deutsche Asset Management even say this could be the "唯一指标" (only indicator) for next year's interest rate movements.

The impact on the market can go in two directions:

If the data exceeds expectations, the market's expectation of a significant rate cut by the Fed will soften. The US dollar may continue to strengthen, and risk assets like Bitcoin could face pressure. Conversely, if the data falls short of expectations, the story of "economic cooling" becomes more plausible, rate cut expectations may be brought forward, and cryptocurrencies, which do not generate interest, might actually see opportunities.

From a technical perspective, the market has already fallen sharply before the data release, and during the day, focus should be on technical rebounds after oversold conditions. But the ultimate market direction depends on how much the actual data deviates from market expectations tonight.

In the short term, Bitcoin needs to watch the 88,000 and 90,000 levels as resistance, while support levels are 85,500 and 84,000. For Ethereum, the $3000 mark has become a psychological barrier, with key supports at 2,900 and 2,830 if looking downward.

After the non-farm data is released, volatility is usually very intense and fast. If you plan to trade tonight, be sure to strictly manage your positions to avoid being caught off guard by sudden data results.