Recently, Bitcoin's performance has been quite tough. It initially dropped to $85,146, with a decline of over 3% within 24 hours, and the total liquidation scale across the network is even more shocking—$594 million, of which $497 million are long liquidations, nearly 180,000 traders worldwide being wiped out.

The root of the issue points to next Friday. The Bank of Japan is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on December 19, and the market is now almost certain that a 25 basis point hike will occur. This expectation alone is quite alarming because if the rate hike actually happens, Bitcoin could continue to decline, potentially reaching as low as $70,000.

But what’s most frightening is the repetition of history. Looking back at past data reveals a clear pattern—every time the Bank of Japan acts since 2024, Bitcoin has suffered significant losses.

Specifically: in March, after the rate hike, Bitcoin fell by 23%; in July, it dropped another 26%; and in January 2025, it plummeted by 31%. Three rate hikes, three adjustments of over 20%. Based on this pattern, the expectation of a rate hike next week has a high probability of exerting similar downward pressure.

This is not an absolute certainty, but it is indeed a combination that the market has always been reluctant to see—central bank tightening plus trader psychological pressure.