Seeing the unemployment rate potentially rise to 4.5%, many people's first reaction is that the economy is about to face problems. But at this stage, the market's understanding of this data is actually counterintuitive.

Tonight's employment data, what the market truly cares about is not whether jobs are easy to find, but whether the Federal Reserve can accelerate its easing. The logical chain behind this is: weak employment data → rising unemployment rate → market anticipates earlier rate cuts → policy space is opened. Pay attention to the sequence—this is not the old pattern of "economic deterioration causes panic," but a new understanding that "economic softening creates policy space." Under the current market structure, this is actually beneficial for risk assets.

So why is the non-farm payroll figure around 50,000 easier for the market to accept? Because what the market fears most now is not growth slowdown, but being forced to continue enduring high interest rates. If the data shows a moderate slowdown in employment, no signs of out-of-control conditions, but pressure gradually accumulating, it perfectly meets the market's needs—"weak enough to promote rate cuts, but still within a manageable range." Such data most easily helps the market say what it wants to hear: the Federal Reserve doesn't need to be so hawkish anymore.

And the real impact of a 4.5% unemployment rate is not on ordinary job seekers, but on those who are already fully invested in cryptocurrencies and waiting for confirmation of the trend. Because 4.5% indicates that the employment market is beginning to cool significantly, and the political costs of maintaining high interest rates are rising, which opens up room for risk assets to rebound.