Strategy repurchased nearly $1 billion worth of BTC, so why has the stock price been falling all the way down?

According to the latest filings submitted by MicroStrategy to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the company once again invested approximately $980.3 million between December 8 and 14, 2025, purchasing 10,645 Bitcoins at an average price of $92,098 per coin.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a correction. Data from Gate行情 shows that as of December 16, the BTC price is temporarily reported at $85,960, down over 3% in the past 24 hours. This has caused the cost basis of MicroStrategy’s batch acquisitions to be significantly higher than the current market price, with unrealized gains rapidly shrinking.

01 Contrarian Accumulation

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin empire continues to expand at the end of the year. The latest round of nearly $1 billion in additional purchases has brought its total Bitcoin holdings to 671,268 coins.

According to disclosed data, the total cost (including fees) of its Bitcoin holdings is approximately $50.3 billion, with an average cost of $74,972. Based on the latest market price of $85,960, the total market value of its holdings is about $57.7 billion, with unrealized gains sharply down from nearly $10 billion at its peak to around $7.4 billion.

Michael Saylor’s “buy the dip, only buy and never sell” strategy has been validated once again during this market correction. Faced with a cost basis and market price inverted by over 6%, MicroStrategy showed no hesitation. The number of Bitcoins held by the company has exceeded 3% of the total theoretical supply of 21 million, maintaining its position as the top Bitcoin holder among publicly listed companies worldwide.

02 Financing Strategies and Market Pressures

Supporting such scale of continuous purchases requires enormous capital. MicroStrategy’s financing methods have formed a sophisticated “capital flywheel.”

The latest funds for Bitcoin purchases came from the issuance and sale of various stocks through its “At-the-Market” (ATM) program, including Class A common stock (MSTR), perpetual Strike preferred stock (STRK), and others. For example, just one week before this purchase, the company sold approximately 4.789664 million shares of MSTR stock, raising $888.2 million.

However, this aggressive strategy of continuous Bitcoin buying contrasts sharply with the overall weakness of key market indicators.

Stock performance is severely disconnected from Bitcoin: as of now, MSTR’s stock price has declined over 40% in 2025. Compared to Bitcoin’s own decline during the same period, the performance is significantly lagging. This indicates that the market no longer simply views MSTR as a “leveraged Bitcoin,” but is beginning to discount its business model itself.

mNAV ratio has turned into a discount: The market commonly uses the “Market Value to Net Asset Value Ratio” (mNAV) to evaluate such Bitcoin holding companies. Currently, MicroStrategy’s mNAV has fallen to around 0.85. This means its market capitalization is below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings, and the stock is trading at a discount, which was rare in the past.

03 Multiple Concerns Behind Divergence

Why is the market signaling red flags for this “Bitcoin whale”? The huge divergence between stock price and core asset performance stems from three core concerns about its business model’s sustainability.

Cash flow and dividend pressure: MicroStrategy’s financing flywheel relies on the continuous issuance of various preferred stocks, which typically come with high annual dividend commitments of 8% to 10%. However, the company’s traditional enterprise software revenue continues to shrink, hitting multi-year lows in 2024. The company’s operations and high dividend payments heavily depend on ongoing external financing. If capital market conditions tighten, this delicate “stock issuance - buy Bitcoin” cycle could face a halt.

Index exclusion risk looming: International index provider MSCI is considering a proposal to ban companies holding more than 50% of their assets in digital assets from entering its global equity benchmarks. MicroStrategy has strongly opposed this. However, market concerns are that if this rule is implemented, being excluded from major indices could trigger passive sell-offs from index-tracking funds, causing liquidity to plummet.

Accounting volatility intensifies: Under the new FASB accounting standards, Bitcoin’s price fluctuations will be directly and immediately reflected in the company’s quarterly income statement. This means that in quarters when Bitcoin prices decline, the company could report huge paper losses. For traditional institutional investors focused on earnings stability, this significant financial statement volatility increases uncertainty and may lead them to reduce holdings or avoid such assets.

04 Difficult Choices for Investors

For investors, MicroStrategy currently presents a paradoxical picture. It is the most convenient and large-scale listed company channel for direct Bitcoin investment, and its holdings form a strong narrative; but at the same time, it also carries risks related to company financing, regulatory expectations, and financial statement volatility.

When mNAV turns into a discount, it sends a clear signal: the market believes that the risks associated with holding MSTR stock have made its value lower than directly holding an equivalent amount of Bitcoin. This forces investors to choose: do they believe Michael Saylor’s vision and business model will eventually be revalued by the market, or do they think the current discount reflects fundamental flaws that cannot be overcome?

Recent Bitcoin price declines from above $92,000 to the $86,000 range further amplify these concerns. The market is examining whether the “Saylor strategy,” which has been highly successful in bullish expectations, can still be effective amid volatility and even downward trends.

05 Significance as a Market Indicator

Regardless of one’s view of MicroStrategy itself, it has become an indispensable high-level indicator in the crypto market. It no longer merely reflects Bitcoin’s price movements but also indicates changes in traditional capital markets’ adoption, valuation logic, and risk tolerance toward crypto assets.

MicroStrategy’s stock price trends, financing activities, and market valuation (mNAV) provide an excellent window into institutional investor sentiment. The current divergence between stock price and Bitcoin, along with the discount in mNAV, clearly shows that traditional financial investors are becoming more cautious and selective.

For ordinary crypto investors, this case offers profound insights: even leading players’ stock prices are not linearly related to the fundamentals of crypto assets, and are intertwined with complex games in traditional financial markets.

Future Outlook

According to Gate行情 data, as of December 16, the BTC price is temporarily reported at $85,960, down over 3% in the past 24 hours. This correction has caused the latest batch of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin purchases to be at a cost higher than the current market price.

The company’s stock has declined approximately 42% since the beginning of the year, and its market value to net asset value ratio (mNAV) has fallen to a discount of around 0.85.

As Michael Saylor celebrates “more orange dots” on social media, on Wall Street trading screens, the chart of MSTR representing MicroStrategy’s stock continues to flicker with red, symbolizing decline and warning. The tug-of-war between reality and belief persists.