TON drops more than 5% in a single day: Why is the decline far exceeding Bitcoin and the entire crypto market?

Bitcoin lost the crucial support level of $86,000 on December 16, falling about 30% from its all-time high in early October. Ethereum also failed to hold the $3,000 mark.

Amid this widespread decline, TON’s performance has been particularly weak. As of December 16, TON’s price was approximately $1.499, with a single-day drop of 5.6%, far exceeding the 2% to 5% decline range typical of the cryptocurrency market.

01 Market Overview

The cryptocurrency market experienced a broad correction on December 16. Bitcoin fell below $86,000 for the first time in two weeks, dropping as much as 3.7% intra-day to $85,171.

Ethereum also showed weakness, breaking below the psychological $3,000 level. Overall market sentiment was bearish, with 24-hour declines generally between 2% and 5%.

In the midst of this downward trend, TON’s performance stood out. According to latest data, TON’s current price is about $1.499, with a 24-hour decline of 5.6% and a 30-day drop of 17.25%.

Compared to mainstream cryptocurrencies, TON’s decrease is notably larger. The table below clearly shows a comparison of TON with major cryptocurrencies on key indicators:

02 Market Background

The broad decline in the crypto market is driven by multiple intertwined factors. On the macro level, weaker-than-expected US economic data has been a key catalyst.

The December New York Fed manufacturing index was only -3.9, well below the expected 10. These figures sparked concerns about economic prospects, impacting risk assets overall.

Traditional financial markets also faced pressure. After opening high on December 15, US stocks plunged, with all three major indices closing lower. AI concept stocks remained under pressure, with Broadcom and Oracle shares falling over 5.6% and 2.7%, respectively.

This risk aversion sentiment across markets has spilled over into the cryptocurrency sector. Analysts point out that weak market liquidity and reduced risk appetite are exerting pressure on digital assets.

Even with the Federal Reserve cutting rates last week, market momentum has not recovered. Bitcoin, after rallying, faces selling pressure from investors looking to take profits near historic highs.

03 Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, TON is under multiple pressures. Currently, TON’s price is below all key moving averages, including MA-20 ($1.601), MA-50 ($1.813), and MA-200 ($2.702).

This technical pattern confirms that sellers dominate in the short, medium, and long-term trends. The baseline line (Kijun) in the Ichimoku Cloud at around $1.618 acts as immediate resistance, with stronger resistance at the MA-50 near $1.813.

In terms of indicators, the daily MACD shows a strong sell signal, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 44.9, confirming the strength of the downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the bearish zone at 38.9.

Price activity is mainly confined within a range of approximately $1.54 to $1.583, with mild intra-day movements. This technical setup suggests that TON is likely to continue consolidating sideways in the short term, with a low probability of an upward breakout.

04 Market Sentiment

Crypto market sentiment indicators have dropped into extreme fear territory. As of December 16, the Fear & Greed Index was only 21 (out of 100), indicating that investors are generally pessimistic.

Such extreme fear is often seen as a signal that the market may be oversold. Historically, periods of extreme fear tend to mark potential market bottoms, offering contrarian investors a buying opportunity.

Market volatility has led to large liquidations of leveraged positions. As of Beijing time December 16, nearly 189,000 traders were liquidated, totaling around $651 million.

This massive liquidation further exacerbates downward pressure, creating a vicious cycle. Forced sell-offs from high leverage positions trigger more liquidations, ultimately leading to liquidity crunches and sharp price declines.

05 Future Outlook

Looking ahead, TON’s price may continue to face pressure in the short term. Analysis suggests that TON is likely to stay within the $1.54 to $1.58 range over the next 5 trading days.

The probability of a price rise is relatively low (less than 20%), mainly due to persistent bearish signals from daily and weekly momentum indicators. The baseline expectation is for sideways consolidation within this range.

If the price can break through the resistance zone at $1.618 to $1.813, market sentiment could shift upward. Conversely, if the price falls below the support at $1.54, further decline and an extension of the downtrend are likely.

Fundamentally, the TON ecosystem continues to develop. By December 2025, the ecosystem is expected to include nearly 1,000 applications across DeFi, DEX, privacy, SocialFi, and gaming sectors.

06 Investment Strategies

In the current volatile environment, investors should adopt cautious strategies. For risk-averse investors, it is recommended to limit exposure to cryptocurrencies to 1% to 3% of their portfolio.

Consider dollar-cost averaging into TON during dips, setting target prices, and strictly executing investment plans. For long-term holdings, storing assets in secure, non-custodial wallets is advisable.

Tools like moving averages and RSI can aid in trend identification and reversal points. In swing trading, close monitoring of TON’s and major cryptocurrencies’ overall trends, with strict stop-losses, is essential to manage downside risk.

Investors can also participate in spot trading of TON on mainstream exchanges like Gate. Gate offers real-time price updates and trading services, helping investors seize market opportunities.

Future Outlook

TON has a circulating supply of approximately 2.45 billion tokens, with a market cap of $3.67 billion, ranking 35th among cryptocurrencies. Its price has fallen sharply from the all-time high of $8.25 in June 2024.

The Fear & Greed Index for the market has dropped to 16, indicating extreme fear. Analysts believe that in the short term, TON may continue to fluctuate within the $1.54 to $1.58 range, with a breakout upwards requiring a dual improvement in market sentiment and liquidity.