#以太坊行情技术解读 The Bank of Japan is about to take action this week. The probability of interest rate hikes has soared to 98%, making this likely the most aggressive policy tightening in the past 30 years. Global liquidity is closing its doors, and the pressure felt in the crypto world is intensifying.

$BTC $ETH $ZEC

Why is this shock so fierce? Let me break down a few points.

First, the "money printing machine" of Yen arbitrage is about to stop. Over the past few years, many institutions have operated in a simple way — borrowing Japanese Yen at near-zero interest rates in Japan, converting to US dollars, and then investing directly in Bitcoin and Ethereum. This cycle has lasted a long time, but once the Yen hikes interest rates, borrowing costs rise, and these institutions will need to reverse their operations, meaning selling assets to repay debt. You can imagine the scene.

Second, last Friday’s decline was just the prelude. The truly frightening part is the period around the interest rate hike announcement. At that time, many institutions will be forced to liquidate positions, and retail investors’ panic will be ignited. Frankly, this is not a technical adjustment, but a stampede caused by liquidity depletion. In the face of such a macro shock, all technical support levels are as fragile as paper — just a poke, and they break.

I have to say something heart-wrenching: I understand the idea of trying to bottom-fish now, but the timing is wrong. Chasing high during a downtrend and buying in is no different from blindly grabbing a grenade. When institutions are cutting losses and retail investors rush in, it’s like delivering takeout to hungry wolves. That 98% chance of interest rate hikes is not a scare tactic; it’s a real risk. Better to earn less than to get trapped inside.

My current strategy is simple — hold onto my positions tightly, and do nothing. Wait until withdrawal queues at exchanges start forming, community discussions cool down completely, and market sentiment hits rock bottom — that’s the real opportunity. Many people don’t understand this kind of waiting, but before the interest rate hike actually lands and the liquidity crisis is fully alleviated, holding cash is more valuable than any other move.

What’s your current position size? Are you still willing to bottom-fish this week?