Good morning everyone. Last night's short positions should have been highly profitable, as recent US stock market openings have crushed the crypto market. Last Friday was the same, and so was this Monday, showing no signs of optimism.

There's an interesting phenomenon— the movements of a leading institution have become a market indicator. When they increase long positions, the crypto market drops; when they reduce long positions, there's a rebound. Clearly, the big players are watching these large funds to profit from market movements. Additionally, insider information suggests that a well-known trader still holds open long positions, with current unrealized losses around 40 million. This battle is quite tough.

Today's market operation is very challenging. At 9:30 PM, the non-farm payroll data will be released. In the absence of a clear stance from the Federal Reserve, such major data often causes huge fluctuations— tonight will likely be another bloody battle.

From the perspective of US stocks, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both closing lower, but with limited declines. However, these limited declines in traditional markets are reflected as waterfall drops in the crypto market—this is the reality of market linkage. Small declines in US stocks lead to big drops in crypto, and a sharp crash in US stocks could mean a cliff drop in crypto. Yesterday's US stock volatility has already been broken, and futures are still trending downward. If tonight's news surpasses expectations, a waterfall decline is almost certain.

Regarding Bitcoin itself, the major cycle oscillation has been completely broken. It has fallen below the relatively heavy support at 864, and is now consolidating around the 855 support-turned-resistance level. The overall pattern is heading towards a bearish flag, very likely to continue probing down to 820 or even 800. If the 800 support doesn't hold, it could directly drop to 740. Conversely, if 800 holds, a double bottom scenario might form, and the chance of a return to 100,000 would increase.

Currently, there are no clear entry signals on the short-term cycle; only pending orders can be placed to wait for opportunities. If conservative long positions are preferred, entering around 840 could be considered, though the risk is higher, but the risk-reward ratio is decent. For shorting, entering around 870 would be more comfortable, but based on the current trend prediction, this opportunity might not present itself, and waiting for confirmation signals on the right side is advisable.

Ethereum's technical outlook is even weaker. The major cycle this week is a standard bearish flag correction; since breaking the trend line last Friday, there has been no recovery, and it is compounded by a nested head-and-shoulders top pattern. If trying to go long, be extra cautious, as ETH's volatility is large, and the current cycle pattern is poor.

If looking to bottom fish, the first support is at 2800, the second at 2700. These levels are key swing points and important integer levels, highly symbolic. More aggressive traders might consider trying small positions at the support/resistance flip at 2850, but they should be cautious.