Ethereum's recent trend is quite interesting — the entire bearish flag pattern has basically completed. Let’s review the process: the first sharp decline acted as the flagpole, followed by a consolidation phase over the next few days which is the flag’s surface, and now it has broken downward to confirm the breakout. The fluctuation yesterday was quite large, leading many to think it was a rectangular consolidation; however, the market quickly turned and dropped sharply.

From the perspective of the flag pattern logic, this decline should reach close to the depth of the first flagpole. Currently, there are no clear signs of a reversal. The 4-hour chart still indicates a downward trend. What’s likely to happen next? There are two possibilities: continue crashing directly, or bounce first then fall. From a short-selling perspective, if it crashes outright, it could trigger a quick rebound and cause traders to get shaken out; the second approach — a clear rebound with ample time — is actually more prudent.

Tonight’s non-farm payroll data is a variable. If the data exceeds expectations on the positive side, it could trigger a small short-term rebound, with intra-day highs expected around the 3030 to 3050 range. In terms of trading, it is recommended to consider short positions near 3050 to 3070, which is right at the pressure zone transitioning from the lower boundary of the flag pattern. If the price drops again, the next target would be around the 2760 to 2730 zone.