When the macro news window closes, each economic data point becomes a guiding light for the market. Any fluctuations in Federal Reserve policy expectations, the US dollar trend, or Treasury yields are instantly transmitted to the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies — this is the market transmission mechanism we need to understand.

Why are non-farm payrolls, CPI inflation, and these data points so critical? Because they directly determine the market’s judgment on the pace and magnitude of interest rate cuts. Weak data will reinforce expectations of rate cuts, boosting risk assets; good data will delay rate cut expectations, putting pressure on the market. This logical chain is not complicated, but the real test lies in execution.

Many people tend to fall into the trap of short-term data volatility, frequently chasing highs and lows. A smarter approach is to wait until the data is released and observe how the market’s medium-term consensus forms — this often guides trading directions more effectively than the data itself. In the current economic environment, the risk of data distortion objectively exists, so it’s better to watch with a cool head and let the genuine reactions of market participants tell you the answer.

Simply put, understand the signals first, then decide on your actions.