#大户持仓变化 Tonight, US economic data bombards the market. Are you all ready?

At 21:30 Beijing time, three major releases: Non-farm Payrolls, Retail Sales, and Average Hourly Earnings—this combo directly gauges the dollar's pulse. A dollar appreciation means what? Just look at how $BTC is performing at 86,000 now. Feeling a bit sluggish.

My judgment is that non-farm data will most likely beat expectations. Once the Federal Reserve's outlook adjusts accordingly, Bitcoin is likely to face short-term pressure. Now, we just wait for this trigger point.

At 22:45, manufacturing and services PMI preliminary figures will follow. If the data remains steady, risk assets could indeed rebound— but this is also a sign of a strengthening dollar. The crypto market at this moment feels caught in the middle, squeezed from both sides. However, from another perspective, steady PMI could give altcoins some "resurgence" opportunities. A painful rebound operation in the dead of winter might be worth paying attention to.

At 23:00, there will be follow-up on business inventories. Although this impact is relatively restrained, don’t overlook it—sometimes the market gets caught on these "small" data points.

Honestly, tonight's key isn't the technicals but how market sentiment will flip once the data is released. Fear of missing out and fear of liquidation are human nature, but toughing it out will only lead to harsher harvests. If you can't see through it clearly, it's better to observe the situation first and act once the trend is clearer.