#大户持仓变化 Economic data release moment: Is it a nightmare for retail investors or harvest time for institutions?

Every time non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates are announced, the market shakes. But do you really understand what’s happening behind those numbers?

Most people's logic is counterintuitive. They think the market moves only when the data is released — wrong. The forces that truly determine the trend have already laid out their plans before the "official announcement." Institutions and large funds with access to primary information sources have long known the true picture of the data, often with an accuracy of over 80%. The "expected value" seen by retail investors? That’s just a smokescreen for subsequent operations.

Every sharp rise or fall when data is released is not the market "reacting," but funds executing their plans. Big players who have pre-positioned are waiting for this moment, using extreme short-term volatility to shake out followers. The stop-loss lines you've set are their targets for hunting.

What should you really pay attention to? **Average hourly wage data.** This directly influences the Federal Reserve's policy stance. Once wage growth exceeds expectations, the rate hike outlook will reignite. When the rate hike cycle starts, global liquidity faces contraction, squeezing the capital space for risk assets like $BTC and $ETH. Large funds are never afraid of whether the data is 4.4% or 4.5%, but how much impact the data has on expectations. And retail investors? Still fussing over that 0.1% difference.

Want to survive longer? Three tips:

**Don’t bet on the data.** You are always at the end of the information chain. Using guesswork to oppose others’ foresight is just giving away money.

**Watch the "lead time."** If the price has already moved a full trend before the data is released, then regardless of the result, it might mean this wave of price action has already "played out." The reverse risk often occurs at this moment.

**Stay calm.** There are always opportunities in the market. The key is not to be fooled by the drama of the data itself. On-chain capital flows and position changes are more genuine signals.