Tonight at 9:30, the non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data will be unveiled. Many people are curious: why does this US employment data have such a profound impact on cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Bitcoin? The logical chain behind it is actually not complicated.

From a causal perspective: Non-farm data → Federal Reserve policy stance → Dollar depreciation and capital flow → Digital asset price movements. The non-farm report reflects the real-time condition of the US labor market, with the two core indicators being new employment and unemployment rate. More new jobs mean a higher economic prosperity; lower unemployment indicates a more stable job market. The Federal Reserve is particularly sensitive to these two indicators because they directly influence interest rate cut decisions. Once a rate cut cycle begins, the dollar’s purchasing power declines, and idle funds in the market naturally seek high-yield investments, making assets like Ethereum the first choice. Conversely, the opposite is true.

This round is especially worth paying attention to. Fed Chair Powell recently admitted that the previously released employment data might have been significantly overestimated, and the actual employment growth may not be as optimistic as it seemed. This uncertainty has market participants waiting for tonight’s official data to break the deadlock. Once the data is released, Ethereum is likely to experience intense volatility—possibly rising first and then falling or dropping directly—this is what traders call the "non-farm行情."

A few suggestions for tonight’s trading: First, don’t try to bet on the direction of the non-farm data. The volatility of such macroeconomic data often exceeds expectations. The common market tactic is to buy on expectations and sell when the actual data is released. Beginners are easily caught off guard by sudden opposite swings during this process. The wise approach is to reduce your position size, preferably no more than 10% of your total funds, leaving enough room for maneuver.

From a technical perspective, in the short term, focus on two key levels: 2870 as support below, and 3100 as resistance above. The importance of these price levels in the current market context is self-evident.

But don’t be led by short-term data. Ethereum’s medium- to long-term support fundamentally comes from the fundamentals—Fusaka upgrade makes transactions faster and cheaper, which is a tangible technological advance; additionally, institutional funds continue to flow in, and ETF products have been absorbing capital. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains its rate cut stance, these factors will be enough to support Ethereum’s upward momentum. Non-farm data is just a short-term disturbance factor; the long-term outlook still depends on these fundamentals.