Tonight, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the December non-farm employment data, which will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market. The market generally expects the number of new jobs to decline significantly, with the unemployment rate remaining high. This data will directly determine the Federal Reserve's policy direction in the first quarter of next year.

Currently, the crypto community is tense, with Ethereum repeatedly testing between $2,900 and $3,300, with the $3,000 psychological barrier being particularly crucial. From on-chain data, the ETH inventory on exchanges has fallen to historically low levels, and leverage positions in the derivatives market are also retreating. The market is clearly preparing for upcoming volatility.

The non-farm data could lead to three possible directions. First, if the data is far below expectations, it will indeed trigger a wave of selling in the short term, but as rate cut expectations heat up, Ethereum's medium-term rebound space could open. Second, if the data meets expectations, the market may first fall into confusion, then enter a long consolidation phase. Lastly, if the data exceeds expectations, it will be clearly bad news for the bulls—large positions may be liquidated, and the decline could intensify.

Different traders with different styles need different strategies. Short-term traders should reduce leverage exposure before the data release, closely monitor key price level breakthroughs, and set stop-loss orders in advance. Long-term holders can accumulate in batches within the $2,900 to $3,000 range, focusing on the fundamentals of Ethereum, and treat the non-farm data as short-term noise.

Regardless of the final outcome, maintaining rationality and proper risk management is most important in this market environment. It makes sense to not fight the Federal Reserve, but it’s even more dangerous to go against the trend. The key is to adjust your thinking flexibly according to the actual market movements.