2025-12-16 08:41:17

#大户持仓变化 Gold has risen for five consecutive days, approaching the historical peak of 4381. Behind this rally is the dovish signal released after the Federal Reserve completes its rate cut in December—officials explicitly stated that the labor market faces obvious downward pressure and that policies should not excessively suppress employment. This statement directly sparked investors' imagination of two rate cuts next year. The US dollar subsequently weakened, and gold has been on a roller coaster.

However, the past two trading days have been somewhat awkward—after surging, gold prices have fallen back consecutively, with short-term selling pressure clearly increasing. What’s going on? Essentially, the market is waiting for the release of tonight’s US November non-farm payroll data and October retail sales data. Many investors chose to take profits early, resulting in a wave of selling.

The technical situation is also worth noting. On the daily chart, gold has lost momentum after consecutive gains and is now oscillating at high levels. Support levels to watch below are the breakout level of 4260 from last Thursday—if this level is broken, short-term correction pressure will increase. Further support levels are the 10-day moving average at 4240 and the round number 4200.

On the upside, first, the key level is the 4300 round number, followed by the intraday high of 4317, which was repeatedly resisted this Tuesday. If this level can be broken, gold may have the chance to surge toward Monday’s high of 4350. From the indicators, the 5-day moving average remains upward, but the upward momentum of MACD is clearly weakening. RSI has started to turn down, and KDJ has initially formed a death cross—these signals all point to a short-term correction.

In terms of trading strategy, since key data will be released tonight and market sentiment remains unstable, it is recommended to adopt a range-bound approach. Support levels to watch are 4260, 4240, and 4200; resistance levels are 4300 and 4317, with a target of 4350 after a breakout.

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MEVHunterWang

· 12-18 19:06

Another awkward fluctuation before the data release; I'm tired of this routine.

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RugDocDetective

· 12-18 06:18

It's starting to fluctuate again, the old tricks before non-farm payrolls, all waiting for the data to come out.

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AirdropFreedom

· 12-16 09:11

Let's wait for the non-farm payroll data to be released. Right now, this position is indeed awkward.

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LonelyAnchorman

· 12-16 09:05

Time to look at the data again, this wave of the market is just waiting game. --- If 4260 breaks, we have to run, don’t be greedy. --- Gold has really been on edge these past couple of days, should have turned around earlier. --- I just want to know if Non-Farm Payrolls will surprise us again and how likely that is. --- Listening to oscillation strategies sounds simple, but actually executing them is really frustrating. --- The Fed is about to dig another hole, it seems that rate cuts next year won’t be so easy. --- Is there hope for 4350? Feels uncertain. --- The technical signals this time are a bit confusing, I’m not confident to chase higher. --- Dovish signals are good, but the real story is told when the data comes out. --- Watching the 4260 level closely; once it breaks, I will liquidate and run.

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ChainSauceMaster