#美联储降息 Tuesday Night Bitcoin Market Recap

Currently, BTC has not yet broken through the October downtrend line. The EMA system on the daily chart is fully in a bearish alignment, and the market is firmly controlled by the bears. From a wave perspective, it is most likely still in the downward phase of wave C, with limited rebound potential.

Support and Resistance Levels Overview
The strongest support is at 85,569. Once broken, the price will continue to test the 82,000 to 85,000 range. Don't forget to watch the final line of defense at 81,936. If this level also cannot hold, the bulls will really have no hope left. On the upside, short-term resistance is at 87,500-88,000, but the real tough zone is around 90,000-94,253 — this area nearly perfectly coincides with the EMA15 and the descending trend line. Without a clear volume breakout, caution is advised on any rebound rally.

Technical Indicators Overview
The Bollinger Bands have turned red, with both the daily and 4-hour charts breaking below the lower band. Once the daily chart moves away from 86,700, there’s no turning back. This kind of movement generally prompts a correction within the channel, but even after correction, the overall structure remains weak. From the volume-price relationship, a classic double-top pattern has formed at high levels, and once the neckline was broken, leveraged liquidations occurred. Recently, trading volume during rebounds has been shrinking, and market enthusiasm is seriously lacking, indicating that a sustained rally is not yet possible.

Short-term Trading Strategy
Oversold rebound opportunities may indeed occur. Initial target zones for a rebound can focus on the 86,000-87,500 area. However, as long as 90,000 is not effectively broken, the rebound is essentially a bear correction — in other words, a setup for further decline. If 85,500 is lost, the market could head straight toward 82,000. Currently, it is recommended to adopt a cautious approach with sideways to weak expectations, use light positions for swing trading, and avoid blindly chasing rallies.